The Climate Change Risk Assessment for Southeast Asian Lakes (CCRASEAL) addresses threats posed by climate change to freshwater ecosystems vital for biodiversity and millions of livelihoods in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA). Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and intensified human activities emphasize the importance of assessing these ecosystems’ vulnerabilities. CCRASEAL provides an assessment of climate-related risks to SEA lakes, supporting future conservation and management strategies.

Through an integrated approach, CCRASEAL combines global datasets, geospatial modelling, machine and deep learning, and stakeholder engagement to analyse lake ecosystems. These models assess climate impacts on lake basins, hydrology, land use, and water quality, incorporating various climate scenarios to project future conditions under different pathways. The project identified several lakes at high risk from climate change, with historical evidence of significant land use and climate changes potentially affecting water storage and runoff. Furthermore, quantitative analyses revealed critical trends, including rising lake surface water temperatures (LSWT), shifting lake water extents (LWE), and altered runoff patterns, all indicating heightened ecological stress.