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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Project • CRRP2018-03MY-Hashimoto

Plausible alternative futures of island mangroves in the Asia-Pacific: Scenario-based analysis and quantification of mangrove ecosystem services in coastal hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation

Mangrove ecosystem services are increasingly being recognised as pivotal to build nature-based resistance to climate change and hydro-meteorological hazards in coastal areas. yet, a dearth of reliable quantitative information on future extent and availability of such services serve as a major obstacle for optimum landscape planning, particularly in remote islands. To address future uncertainties in mangrove ecosystem services, scenario-based quantitative assessment of mangrove ecosystem services remains imperative for evidence-led decision-making and establishing a strong science-policy interface for policy making. Under this backdrop, this project intends to develop spatially-explicit, exploratory scenatios (2050) for mangroves and assess future trade-offs in vital mangrove ecosystem services under alternative climate and development pathways (e.g. with ‘no’, ‘moderate’ and ‘strong’ policy intervention). It will specifically focus on five study sites, namely: (1) North Andaman Islands and estuarine island mangroves from Odisha (India); (2) Ishigaki Islands (Japan); (3) Oriental Mindoro (The Philippines); (4) Tamsui River Estuary (Taiwan); and (5) Viti Levu Island (Fiji). By developing future scenarios, the project will make quantitative, spatiotemporal evaluation of vital mangrove ecosystem services, with respect to climate change and hazard mitigation (e.g. carbon sequestration, coastal vulnerability, sediment and nutrient retention) through appropriate biophysical model.