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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Project final report: Plausible alternative futures of Island mangroves in the Asia-Pacific: Scenario-based analysis and quantification of mangrove ecosystem services in coastal hazard mitigation and climate

Mangrove ecosystem services are pivotal to building nature-based resistance to climate change and hydro-meteorological hazards in coastal areas. However, a dearth of reliable quantitative information on the future extent and availability of such services hinders effective policy planning. To address the future uncertainties in mangrove ecosystem services, this project took a scenario approach for quantifying the mangrove ecosystem services in six selected island locations in Asia-Pacific, namely (1) Andaman Islands and estuarine island mangroves from Odisha (India) (2) Ishigaki Island (Japan) (3) Oriental Mindoro islands (The Philippines) (4) Tamsui River Estuary, Taiwan and (5) Ba River Delta of Fiji. We simulated and developed the future land use of the respective study areas (for 2050), considering various social, environmental, economic and policy drivers and agents of change, and estimated the plausible alternative spatial and temporal extent of mangroves. Furthermore, we simulated key mangrove ecosystem services, wherever applicable, including the contribution of the mangrove ecosystem service (1) Coastal vulnerability reduction (2) Carbon storage (Blue carbon) (3) Sediment retention, (4) Nutrient retention and (5) Habitat Quality. The maps and data generated from this project are very useful for policy planning and serve as the key input to spatial decision-making in the respective study areas.