Weather and climate extremes have enormous impacts on society, becoming more severe and frequent as the world warms. Most developing countries in Asia are highly vulnerable to risks associated with heat wave/cold spell, drought/flood, tropical cyclone, and other extremes. Recognizing these vital challenges, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) has made improving the understanding and prediction of such extremes a priority of its new Strategic Plan. While projecting changes in the likelihood of extreme events decades in the future informs long-term planning, such information is also crucial for shorter-term horizons from weeks to years, whose extreme event probabilities are determined both by natural climate variations and long-term warming. Ensemble climate predictions from initialized global climate models offer an ideal tool to forecast near-term probabilities of extreme and enable the likelihood of extremes in the current climate to be quantified more accurately than from the limited observational record. The proposed WCRP workshop on Extremes in Climate Prediction Ensembles (ExCPEns) will bring together members of global and regional climate prediction communities to share expertise and recent developments in this important and rapidly expanding field. Members of the Disaster Risk Reduction community will be also engaged. Funds are requested to facilitate participation by early career scientists (ECS) from APN developing countries.
Project • CBA2020-06SY-Yoo