Disasters pose a significant threat to global development and poverty reduction. This research sought to transform disaster risk assessments by understanding how climate change will impact localised flood risk and unpack how these assessments can be better incorporated into local planning processes. The project focused on in-depth study of two catchment basins located in the Municipality of Carigara (Leyte, Philippines) and the Regency of Singkil (Aceh, Indonesia). Hydrological modelling incorporated downscaled climate change models, in combination with vulnerability assessments, to examine shifting flood risk patterns. As part of this, the team created new localised residential vulnerability functions which were used to quantitatively evaluate probabilistic flood damages across expected climate change scenarios. The results show that while climate change has the potential to make flooding more likely in some scenarios, changes in vulnerability and exposure appear to be larger drivers of increasing flood risk. To aid local governments in adapting to these future changes, a serious game was developed to introduce climate change concepts, create exposure to new adaptation strategies, and illuminate collaborative governance structures. The results of this research provide new knowledge of the unfolding impacts of climate change on flooding and offers guidance to enable more effective adaptation decision-making.
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