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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Case Study Report: Impacts of climate change on hydrological regimes in Budhi Gandaki river basin

This study assessed climate change impacts on hydrological regimes in the Budhi Gandaki River Basin (BRB) in central Nepal, covering 3881.16 km2 with an altitudinal range of 315-8163 masl. The Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) was employed using historical data (2000- 2023) and CMIP6 projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (2024-2100). Analysis of historical data revealed that BRB receives approximately 1530 mm annual precipitation, with 74% occurring during monsoon (June-September). Temperature data from Dhunibesi station showed a warming trend, with July and August being the hottest months (26°C) and January the coolest (13°C). Discharge at Arughat station exhibited an increasing trend, particularly after 2016. CMIP6 projections indicate little to no precipitation increase in the near-future (2024-2049), with gradual increases in mid- and far-future periods. Temperature projections show a gradual increase under SSP2-4.5 and an alarming rise under SSP5-8.5, reaching around 17°C annually by 2075-2100. The study utilized reclassified LULC maps from 2000 and 2024, incorporating eight classes including debris-covered glaciers. These maps were crucial for calibrating the GDM and simulating future discharge. GDM simulations project decreasing discharge trends compared to the baseline (157.60 m3/s), with reductions of approximately 25% under SSP2-4.5 and 20% under SSP5-8.5 for 2024-2100. Water balance analysis reveals baseflow as the largest contributor (~51%), followed by rainfall (~34%), snowmelt (~10%), and ice melt (~4%). Seasonal analysis shows increased discharge in winter, pre-monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons, but decreased monsoon discharge compared to baseline. The study highlights high spatiotemporal variability in climate change impacts and underscores the need for incorporating glaciers into large-scale hydrological models for improved climate change assessments. This research provides valuable insights for water resource management and adaptation strategies in glacierized Himalayan River basins under changing climatic conditions.