Skip to content

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Read our Science Bulletin
Report

Bias-corrected Daily Precipitation Estimates in the Ifugao Rice Terraces under Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change is projected to have significant impacts on water resources. The Ifugao Rice Terraces, a highland socio-ecological production system which largely depends on the preservation of traditional communal management institutions that revolve around the allocation of available water resources and the synchronization of the agricultural cycle, stands particularly vulnerable. This working paper presents bias-corrected daily precipitation estimates under future climate change conditions. A computationally-efficient statistical bias-correction method enabled the analysis of a wide range of scenarios. Projections generally indicate a drying trend of dry months, especially at the end of the century (2091-2100). Significant changes from historical trends are evident in some scenarios. Discrepancies in projections are noted due to the inherent model uncertainties and coarse resolution of the climate models. These future projections are necessary to formulate adaptation measures which can be implemented by the local rice terrace farmers.