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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Peer-reviewed publication

Toward a fire and haze early warning system for Southeast Asia

Smoke haze from forest fires is among Southeast Asia’s most serious environmental problems and there is a clear need for a fire and haze early warning system (EWS) for the region. APEC Climate Center (APCC) has been collecting monthly dynamic prediction data produced by 16 institutions and has been producing 6-month lead multi-model ensemble (MME) climate forecasts every month. In this study, we developed four different statistical downscaling methods and assessed the forecast skill of the integrated forecast system over four provinces in Borneo Island. We developed a EWS prototype in which three-month precipitation (August to October) is predicted during April to July and the forecasted precipitation amount is then translated into four fire danger ratings based on the relationship between precipitation amount and CO2 emission. A needs assessment for early warning information was conducted through field surveys with resource managers at three provinces in Indonesia. A two-day workshop was held for the improvement of the EWS. Finally, the forest fire early warning information on Borneo Island created using the EWS will be provided though the hosting server in APCC.