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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

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Peer-reviewed publication

Future Extremes and Variability of Rainfall over Monsoon Region of Pakistan

Rainfall variability and increasing frequency and intensity of weather extremes have become two important and crucial factors for policymakers since last few decades. Considering the vulnerability of Pakistan’s economy to extreme events, demand for robust projections of future changes in rainfall variability and extremes is essential for stakeholders and policymakers. This study gives an overview of the future changes in rainfall variability and extremes over monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. This domain has been selected considering its relevance to highest rainfall contribution towards the country’s total rainfall. Important contributions toward reliable projected changes in extremes are efforts of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) which provide coordinated simulations from state of- the-art global climate models. The fine resolution global climate model CMCC-CM (0.8° x 0.8°) is selected from a set of CMIP5 models. Base period is defined as 1976-2005 and rainfall future variability (e.g. SDII, PRCPTOT etc.) and extreme indices (e.g. R20, RX5day, R99p, CWD etc.) are calculated for near future (2030-2059) & far future (2070-2099) relative to reference period 1976-2005 under emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results show that temporal variability of rainfall over study domain is projected to decrease in future under both the RCPs and flood related extreme indices are projected to increase. Consecutive wet days are projected to slightly decrease in the future and are consistent with the changes in extremely wet days (R99p) which are increasing in this region to about 95% by the end of this century.