The Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate model (NHRCM) was used in simulating the 3 present and future rainfall climate over Malaysia under the RCP8.5 scenario in this 4 study. Simulation and projection from 1979 to 2002 for present day and 2070 to 2100 5 for the end of century were conducted over the Malaysia. The 20 km resolution MRI6 AGCM3.2 model simulation from Meteorological Research Institute, MRI was used as 7 boundary conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the extreme rainfall 8 projections in Malaysia at 5 km of resolution during the November to February period, 9 representing the northeast monsoon season. Overall, the model was capable to simulate 10 the historical rainfall climatology and distribution, but model tended to underestimate 11 high rainfall frequency and mean rainfall intensity in Malaysia. However, compared 12 with simulations at 25 km, added values have been shown at 5 km resolution. Based on 13 the NHRCM05 simulations, a number of hotspots have been identified with significant 14 projected increases up to 80% for the extreme rainfall indices (R20mm, RX1day, 15 R95pTOT and R99pTOT), 30% increases in mean rainfall intensity (SDII) and 20% for 16 consecutive dry days indices (CDD).
Peer-reviewed publication