Integrated Model Development for Water and Food Security Assessments and Analysis of the Potential of Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities in Temperate Northeast Asia

Dublin Core

Title

Integrated Model Development for Water and Food Security Assessments and Analysis of the Potential of Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities in Temperate Northeast Asia

Project Item Type Metadata

Project Reference No.s

CRP2006-02NMY
CRP2007-02CMY
CRP2008-02CMY

Programme

CAPaBLE

Project Leader

Prof. Xiaodong Yan, START Regional Centre for Temperate Asia, CHINA

Email

yxd@tea.ac.cn

Project Summary

Development of an integrated model system to assess potential mitigation options and sustainable development opportunities in relation to water and food security

Countries Involved

East Asia: China, Mongolia, Russian Federation (New Zealand)

Scientific Thematic Area

Resources Utilisation and Pathways for Sustainable Development

Sub-Thematic Area

Food and Water Security

Project Duration

3 years

Year of Completion

2008

Project Output

Statistical downscaling of regional daily precipitation over southeast Australia based on self-organizing maps
Chonghua Yin, Yinpeng Li, Wei Ye, Janet F. Bornman and Xiaodong Yan
Abstract
This paper presents a novel statistical downscaling method based on a non-linear classification technique known as self-organizing maps (SOMs) and has therefore been named SOM-SD. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local-scale surface variable was constructed in a relatively simple and transparent manner. For a specific atmospheric state, an ensemble of possible values was generated for the predictand following the Monte Carlo method. Such a stochastic simulation is essential to explore the uncertainties of climate change in the future through a series of random re-sampling experiments. The novel downscaling method was evaluated by downscaling daily precipitation over Southeast Australia. The large-scale predictors were extracted from the daily NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, while the predictand was high-resolution gridded daily observed precipitation (1958–2008) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The results showed that the method works reasonably well across a variety of climatic zones in the study area. Overall, there was no particular zone that stands out as a climatic entity where the downscaling skill in reproducing all statistical indices was consistently lower or higher across seasons than the other zones. The method displayed a high skill in reproducing not only the climatologic statistical properties of the observed precipitation, but also the characteristics of the extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the model was able to reproduce, to a certain extent, the inter-annual variability of precipitation characteristics.
Published in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 105
http://www.springerlink.com/content/g0h017608ql85616/

Citation

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN). (2008). Integrated Model Development for Water and Food Security Assessments and Analysis of the Potential of Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities in Temperate Northeast Asia. Retrieved from http://www.apn-gcr.org/resources/items/show/1651