Acronyms

Access

Logo

Contact

PROJECT #2003-04
Water Resources in South Asia: An Assessment of Climate Change-associated Vulnerabilities and Coping Mechanisms

The participants were funded through the APN grant for the year-end meeting in Kathmandu, Nepal. Additional funding was provided by the International START Secretariat and the Hansen Institute for World Peace (HIWP). The same three organizations also funded participation in the initial start-up meeting held in Dhaka, Bangladesh in May 2002, and the first year-end meeting held in Kathmandu in January 2003.

A representative of APN, Dr. C. Sharma (APN Liaison Officer for South Asia ), was funded by APN directly.

Brief introduction and background:
Among the regions of the world, South Asia is most sensitive to global climate change. This region depends very heavily on the precipitation of the variable regional monsoon as well as water derived from glacier melt in the Himalayas. Both of these will be affected by climatic change. This three-year project focuses on the following activities:

• Analyzing recent experiences in climate variability and extreme events, and their impacts on regional water resources;
• Assessing the impacts of projected climate change and variability and associated extreme hydrological events, and socio-economic changes on the water resources of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan;
• Determining the vulnerability of regional water resources to climate change, and identifying key risks to each sub-region and prioritizing adaptation responses;
• Evaluating the efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water resources; and
• Providing input to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies.

Outline of activities conducted:

Year-1
During the first year (APN 2002-12) analysis of recent experience in climate variation and extreme events was conducted. This focused on climate variability and its impacts, as well as vulnerability assessment, and included:

• National reviews of climate variability and extreme events (floods, droughts, etc.) over the last half-century and “autonomous” and planned responses;
• Assessment of biophysical and socio-economic impacts of past climate variability;
• Identification of selected hydrological units at high risk;
• Assessment of autonomous adaptation and national policies, development plans, disaster management policies and measures in response to past extreme events;
• Spontaneous coping mechanisms in response to selected extreme events; and
• Sharing of these experiences among the involved group of researchers from the participating countries.

Outcomes and products:

Year-1 (APN 2002-12)
An intensive three-day inception workshop was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh in May 2002. This workshop was funded by APN, HIWP and START. At this workshop, background presentations were made by country teams, detailed work plans for year-1 activities were developed, outline of the country studies and data formats were finalized, timelines were established and the agenda was developed for the year-end meeting;

• Collaboration with the GEF-funded project on “Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors.” One member received training in April at the Tyndall Center, University of East Anglia, UK. Two additional team members were trained in the AIACC June workshop held in Trieste, Italy;
• Participating countries in South Asia each produced national scale studies based on climate variability and impact assessments using historical records. These studies collated and analyzed pertinent data from various sources to identify extreme hydrologic events with adaptive responses (spontaneous and planned).
• Regional background paper was prepared;
• Draft synthesis report was prepared; and
• Intensive three-day year-end workshop was held in Kathmandu, Nepal . Keynote background papers as well as results of national scale studies and the draft synthesis report were presented and discussed. Focused national studies were compiled for future publication.

Year-2 (APN 2003-04)
During year-2, the project focused on adaptation analysis and assessment. Field studies were conducted in the pre-identified Selected Hydrological Units (SHUs) in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The activities included data collection/collation, field surveys and key-actor interviews, and an evaluation/assessment of experience with various adaptation measures, including considerations of economic efficiency, technological feasibility and social acceptability of such measures. Draft country reports on the case studies were also prepared. Each country report included detailed analyses of the surveys carried out in the respective SHUs. A number of recommendations were made based on coping mechanisms related to floods and droughts. An outline of the year-2 Synthesis Report was finalized. The Report will synthesize information from the country reports in terms of socio-economics, vulnerability and coping mechanisms.

Dr. Amir Muhammed presented his project during an APN session at the 3rd World Water Forum, held in Kobe, Japan, March 2003. In addition, papers on the observed coping mechanisms during floods in Bangladesh, and drought modelling, vulnerability and adaptations in Bangladesh were presented at the 13th Stockholm Water Symposium (11-16 August, 2003) by Dr. Monirul Mirza. Dr. Amir Muhammed also attended the Open Science Conference of the Global Water System Project in Portsmouth, USA in October 2003 and discussed project findings with participants.

Outcomes and products:

• An intensive four-day year-end meeting was held in Kathmandu, Nepal on 15-19 December 2003 in conjunction with the APN project on Global Change Impact Assessment for Himalayan Mountain Regions for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development (APN 2003-03). Presentations on field level case studies were made by country teams and detailed work plans and timeline for year three activities were developed;
• Proceedings of the first year-end workshop entitled “ Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia ” were printed and distributed among the participants and other stakeholders. It included six chapters on country reports and year 2 synthesis and four chapters on keynote papers;
• HIWP organized and sponsored a meeting in San Diego, 14-16 May, 2003 to design and finalize the survey methodology and questionnaire for case studies to be conducted in the SHUs identified in Year-1 of the project. Key actor interviewees were also identified in the meeting; and
• HIWP designed and implemented a collaborative program with the South Asia Water Project. The multi-media extension package is an attempt to bring some of the results of the APN work to an applied level to assist farmers in improving production decision-making in times of extreme hydrological conditions. The user-friendly multi-media CD will include illustrations, graphics, pictures and video clips on best management practices geared to overcome the barriers of illiteracy.

Future directions and follow-up activities:
During year-3 of the project, attention will be on providing information needed to reduce vulnerability of the region's water resources to climate and socio-economic change and development of national and regional strategies. This will include:

• Preparation of regional maps of climate variability and change to identify areas at risk in terms of water availability and agriculture;
• Exposure meeting of technical experts and climate modelers will be organized at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India;
• Preparation of a draft project report;
• Stakeholder meetings at national levels with participation of experts and policy makers;
• Preparation of the final report and its dissemination through a regional capacity building/outreach workshop;
• Peer-reviewed articles will be published in a special issue of the Journal “Science and Culture ”; and
• Synthesis Report on the entire project will be prepared and published. In addition to synthesizing information on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, the report will include key recommendations.