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PROJECT #2003-02
Applying Climate Information to Enhance the Resilience of Farming Systems Exposed to Climatic Risk in South and Southeast Asia

A representative of APN, Dr. Anond Snidvongs (APN Liaison Officer for Southeast Asia), was funded by APN directly.

Brief introduction and background:
This is the second year of a three-year project and builds on previous work in India and Pakistan (APN 2000-17) that established a research network with capacity to apply systems modelling to evaluate options for managing climatic risk. This CLIMAG project aims to demonstrate and deliver benefits from climate applications, and plots a course for large-scale operational support within India, Indonesia and Pakistan. It brings together scientists from the target countries, Australia and USA, and coordinates with complementary efforts elsewhere.

Outline of activities conducted:

• Workshop on Seasonal Climate and Crop Forecasting Methods for South Indian Rainfed Agriculture, Pune, India, 12-16 May;
• Strategic Planning Workshop: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction to Enhance Smallholder Farmer Livelihoods in Semi-Arid Peninsular India, Pune, India, 19-20 May;
• Project Mid-term Meeting, Hanoi, Viet Nam, 8-9 December;
• Capacity Building Workshop, Hanoi, Viet Nam, 10-11 December;
• Installation and initiation of dynamic downscaling runs over India;
• Statistical downscaling of GCM hindcasts, and associated diagnostics;
• Analysis of the influence of El Niño characteristics on Indian monsoon rainfall;
• Pre- and post-season farmer workshops, Tamil Nadu;
• Survey of diffusion of understanding and use of climate information, Tamil Nadu;
• Participatory evaluation of groundnut varieties, Tamil Nadu;
• Training of extension personnel in climate applications, Tamil Nadu;
• Visit of Bandung District Agriculture Officers to Indramayu Climate Field School;
• Analysis of ENSO influence on historic floods and drought, Bandung District;
• APSIM validation and simulation database, Bandung District; and
• Economic evaluation of cropping system responses to ENSO forecasts, Bandung.
  

Outcomes and products:

The Workshop on Seasonal Climate and Crop Forecasting Methods for South Indian Rainfed Agriculture provided training and advanced analyses at project locations in southern India relative to GCM skills, historical data analysis, and crop forecasting.

Strategic Planning Workshop: Seasonal Rainfall Prediction to Enhance Smallholder Farmer Livelihoods in Semi-Arid Peninsular India. Seven institutions established a consortium and developed a strategy for expanded operational forecast applications.

Viet Nam Capacity Building Workshop. Discussions with representatives from Vietnamese agencies revealed an opportunity for our project to contribute to training.

Dynamic Downscaling for India. In preparation for planned analyses, we transferred GCM output to IITM, installed the Regional Spectral Model, and conducted trial runs.

Statistical GCM Correction for India. Our analyses identified GCM output indices that offer promise of improving skills and supporting downscaling.

El Niño Characteristics. Analyses showed that El Niño events with SST anomalies centred on the Dateline have a stronger impact on Indian and Australian rainfall, while those displaced to the east have a stronger impact in Indonesia and Northeast Brazil.

Extending Climate Applications within Tamil Nadu. We trained about 1200 agricultural extension staff in climate prediction and application, and issued forecasts and advisories to 80 farmer group conveners, each of whom was responsible for disseminating to more than 20 others.

Diffusion of Understanding and Adoption, Tamil Nadu. Survey results showed that farmer workshops improved approximately 30% of farmers’ decision skill scores from ‘low’ to ‘good.’ Each collaborating farmer extended climate knowledge to an average of 5 others.

Participatory Evaluation of Groundnut Varieties, Tamil Nadu. An on-farm participatory experiment supported a model-based analysis and provided insight to criteria for variety selection under climate risk.

Extending the Indramayu Climate Field School (CFS) to Bandung. As a first step, agriculture extension workers from Bandung visited Indramayu to observe the CFS.

ENSO Influence on Floods and Drought, Bandung. Analyses showed strong negative impacts of El Niño on rainfall that translated into reduced rice production in most sub-districts. La Niña has caused floods in some sub-districts.

Economics of Forecast Response, Bandung. Results showed that farmers could have saved US$ 235 ha-1, or US$ 11.2 million across the district, by not planting a second rice crop in El Niño years. Replacing rice with soybean would further increase benefits.

Future directions and follow-up work:
This is the second year of a three-year project. In the final year, we expect to:

• Synthesize and document project results;
• Evaluate optimally-transformed GCM prediction at multiple scales;
• Evaluate predictability of rainfall spell statistics;
• Investigate the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall;
• Analyse district crop statistics versus seasonal predictors for southern India; and
• Explore financial instruments for climate risk management.

Work in India will focus on crop simulation linked to GCM hindcasts, whole-farm economic analysis, ex-post assessment of impacts of forecast responses, and development of a risk management tool for extension. There is substantial interest and opportunity to extend agricultural use of climate prediction throughout semi-arid India. Work in Indonesia will include exploring reanalysis data to extend meteorological time series, using downscaled GCM forecasts with crop simulation, and expanding model-based analysis of forecast responses. In Pakistan we will complete and document analyses of double cropping for climate risk management.