|
PROJECT #2003-01
Indices and Indicators
for Monitoring Trends in Climate Extremes
| Project Leader |
Dr. M. MANTON & Dr. N. NICHOLLS
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC)
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne VIC 3001
AUSTRALIA
Tel: +61-3-9669-4444
Fax: +61-3-9669-4660
Email: m.manton@bom.gov.au |
| Funding |
US$ 42,000 |
| Participating countries |
Participants from the following countries were funded: Australia, Fiji, French
Polynesia, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Pakistan,
Papua New Guinea, P. R. China, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand and
Viet Nam.
|
A participant from each of the listed countries (except Australia) will be funded
by APN. About ten further participants from BMRC, the National Climate Centre
(NCC), and CSIRO Atmospheric Research in Australia are expected to be self-funded.
There are likely be at least two participants from New Zealand, but only one
will be funded by APN. Pakistan will be involved to assist in their preparation
for an APN workshop proposal. Malcolm Haylock, the consultant who has managed
the data issues for the previous workshops, is now working in UK. He will be
funded to return to Melbourne to support this workshop.
Brief introduction and background:
The importance of monitoring and analysing climate extremes has been highlighted
by the last two assessment reports of the IPCC. Over the last few years, there
has been increased research in developed countries aimed at improving the analysis
of climate extremes. However, the national and regional trends in climate extremes
are of interest to all countries, and this APN project aims first to enhance
the capacity of participating countries to monitor and analyse their own data
and secondly to enable national trends to be put into a regional context. The
current phase of the project is the fifth in a series of workshops on Climate
Extremes in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific. The workshop will be held in
the Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, from 23-25 March 2004.
Outline of activities conducted:
The main activity in 2001 was a three-day workshop in Melbourne, involving
representatives of seventeen countries. The next workshop in 2002 focused
on meta-data, in addition to the continuing theme of analysing climate extremes.
The
key activity for the current year will be a workshop in Melbourne in March
2004. The workshop will follow-up on earlier analyses of climate extremes
in rainfall and temperature across the region, and follow-up the work from
the last meeting on the collection and archiving of metadata. There will be
three new features introduced at the meeting. First, the importance of extending
the range of analysed variables will be discussed; in particular, problems
associated with monitoring humidity will be considered. Secondly, participants
will use web-based techniques to explore the relationship between their data
and large-scale variables, like ENSO. Thirdly, there will be a discussion of
how to apply the analysis of extremes to impact assessments, where only changes
in mean variables are well known.
Outcomes and products:
The expected products from the project at the workshop in March are listed
as follows:
- Each participant will receive a CDROM containing new or updated
software for quality control, the calculation of climate extreme indices,
and metadata
entry. The CDROM will also contain all the presentations from participants,
including lectures and country reports. Thus, the CDROM updates and extends
the material provided at the previous workshops, and so provides a basis
for further improvement of data analysis in each participating country;
- Updated
analysis of national data on climate extremes, carried out by individual
participants;
- Updated regional analysis of climate extremes, providing a
regional context for national analyses;
- A report on the workshop will be
prepared for the APN Newsletter; and
- The website <http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/csr/apn> will
be updated to include the results of the current workshop.
The outcomes of the project will include:
- Maintenance of the APN profile in the
international science community;
- Strengthened regional links through collaborative
work across many countries;
- Enhanced understanding of climate in the Asia-Pacific
region; and
- Enhanced understanding of the requirements for collection and
archiving of climate data and associated metadata by participants.
Future directions and follow-up work:
The current workshop will be the fifth and last of the series hosted by BMRC.
It is hoped that the work will be taken up by other groups. The model of
these APN workshops will continue to be used in other parts of the world,
through other funding mechanisms.
|
