PROJECT #2002-12
Water Resources in South Asia: An Assessment of Climate Change-associated
Vulnerabilities and Coping Mechanisms
| Project Leader |
Dr. A. MUHAMMED
National University for Computer and Emerging Sciences
FAST House, Rohtas, Road G-N/4, Islamabad
PAKISTAN
Tel: +92-51-2855-0724
Fax: +92-51-2855-075
Email: amir.muhammed@nu.edu.pk
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| Funding |
US$ 60,000
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| Participating countries |
Participants from the following countries were funded: Bangladesh,
India, Nepal, Pakistan, and USA.
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The participants were funded through the APN grant for the year-end
meeting in Kathmandu, Nepal. Other than APN, the Hansen Institute
for World Peace and the International START Secretariat also funded participants
from the same countries for the initial start-up meeting held in May 2002,
in Dhaka, Bangladesh and selected participants in the year-end meeting
in Kathmandu, Nepal in January 2003.
Brief introduction and background
Among the regions of the world, South Asia is most sensitive to global
climate change. This region depends very heavily on the precipitation of
the variable regional monsoon as well as water derived from the glacier
melt in the Himalayas; both of these will be affected by climatic change.
This three-year project focuses on the following activities:
- Analyses of recent experiences in climate variability and extreme
events, and their impacts on regional water resources;
- Assessment of the impacts of projected climate change and variability
and associated extreme hydrological events, and socio-economic changes,
on the water resources of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan;
- Determination of the vulnerability of regional water resources to
climate change; and identification of the key risks to each sub-region
and prioritization of adaptation responses;
- Evaluation of the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies
or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regional water
resources; and
- Input provision to relevant national and regional long-term development
strategies.
Outline of activities conducted
During the first year (2002/2003) analyses of recent experiences in
climate variation and extreme events were conducted. These focused
on climate variability and impacts, and vulnerability assessments, including:
- National reviews of climate variability and extreme events (floods,
droughts, etc.) over last half-century and "autonomous" and planned responses;
- Assessment of biophysical and socio-economic impacts of past climate
variability;
- Identification of selected hydrological units at high risk;
- Assessment of autonomous adaptation and national policies, development
plans, disaster management policies and measures in response to past extreme
events;
- Spontaneous coping mechanisms in response to selected extreme events;
and
- Sharing of these experiences within the involved group of researchers
from the participating countries.
Outcomes and products
- An intensive 3-day inception workshop was held in Dhaka, Bangladesh
in May 2002. This workshop was funded by the Hansen Institute for
World Peace and the START Secretariat. At this workshop, background
presentations were made by country teams, detailed work plans for year
one activities were developed, outline of the country studies and data
formats were finalized, timelines were established and the agenda was developed
for the year-end meeting;
- Collaboration was made with the GEF-funded project on "Assessment
of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and
Sectors." One member received training in April at the Tyndall Center,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. Two additional team members were
trained in the June workshop held in Trieste;
- The participating countries in South Asia each produced national
scale studies based on climate variability and impact assessment using
historical record. These studies collated and analyzed pertinent data from
various sources to identify extreme hydrologic events with adaptive responses
(spontaneous and planned);
- A regional background paper was prepared;
- A synthesis report was prepared in draft; and
- An intensive 3-day year-end workshop was held (back-to-back with
APN 2002-03) in Kathmandu, Nepal. Keynote background papers as well
as results of national scale studies and the draft synthesis report were
presented and discussed. Focused national studies were compiled for
future publication.
Future directions and follow-up work
The next two years (2003/2004 and 2004/2005) will be directed to the
analysis of adaptive experiences and capacities based on field studies
and development of adaptive strategies. Results will be presented and discussed
at annual workshops and reported in research papers. In the second year,
the project will focus on adaptation analysis and assessment. At
least four substantial field studies will be conducted. These will include:
- Data collection/collation, field surveys and key-actor interviews;
and
- Evaluation/assessment of experience with various adaptation measures,
including considerations of economic efficiency, technological feasibility
and social acceptability of such measures.
In the third year of the project, attention will be focused on providing
information needed to reduce vulnerability of the region's water resources
to climate and socio-economic changes and the development of national and
regional strategies. This will include:
- Preparation of a draft report;
- Stakeholder meetings at national levels;
- Preparation of a final report and its dissemination through a regional
capacity building/outreach workshop; and
- Manuscripts for peer reviewed articles will be prepared.
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