PROJECT #2002-03
Global Change Impact Assessment for Himalayan Mountain Region
for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development
| Project Leader |
Prof. Dr. K.L. SHRESTHA
Institute for Development and Innovation
21/85 Pimbahal, Lalitpur
NEPAL
Tel: +977-1-533-028, 537-059
Fax: +977-1-225-474
Email: klshrestha@wlink.com.np
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| Funding |
US$ 60,000
|
| Participating countries |
India, Nepal, and Pakistan
|
The Guelph University of Canada funded the travel of one of the keynote
speakers, Ms. Archana Shrestha, at the year-end meeting in Kathmandu, Nepal
in January 2003.
Brief introduction and background
The Himalayan Mountains are highly susceptible to global change because
of their young and fragile nature coupled with sharp gradients. In 2002,
APN supported the organization of a scoping workshop (APN 2001-17) in Kathmandu
for developing a project proposal on Global Change Impact Assessment for
Himalayan Mountain Regions. This two-year project, the follow-up of the
workshop, focuses on the following activities related to the Himalayan
Mountain regions:
- Identification and understanding of key ecological and socio-economic
parameters, including their sensitivities and vulnerabilities under global
changes and cumulative changes due to ongoing human interventions;
- Assessment of the vulnerability to and impacts of global change on
food security and water resources including transfer of resources between
uplands and lowlands;
- Assessment of the vulnerability of its mountain people to global
change and to investigate the factors that promote resilience of these
groups in the face of multiple and interacting environmental stresses;
and
- Informing, from a scientific basis, the policymaking processes at
local to regional scales regarding global change impacts on food security
and water as well as response strategies for coping with and adapting to
the changes.
Outline of activities conducted
During the first year (2002/2003) of the project, analysis of recent
experience in climate variations and extreme events in the Himalayan regions
together with initial assessments of vulnerability and impact of water
resources and agro-ecosystems and the mountain people were conducted. These
focussed on three watersheds, one in each participating country. The project
activities included:
- Country reviews of recent climate variability and extreme events;
water availability and agricultural practices and assessment of their sensitivities
to climate change and variability;
- Assessment of socio-economic vulnerabilities of past climate variability
and recent globalization processes;
- Synthesis and aggregation of country studies highlighting the regional
sensitivity and vulnerability to global change; and
- Developing common approaches and the sharing of research results
and experiences within the involved group of researchers from the participating
countries.
Outcomes and products
- Generation of an integrated regional database on science and society
in the Himalayan regions relevant to global change impact assessment studies;
- Creation of a common web site for the project;
- Training in 2002 of one research team member at the AIACC Trieste
workshop and initial capacity building by involving post-graduate students
in research activities;
- An intensive 3-day inception workshop was held in Kathmandu, Nepal
in June 2002. At this workshop, country teams made background presentations,
prepared detailed work plans and timelines for year one activities, and
finalized an outline for the country studies and data formats;
- The participating countries each produced country studies on recent
climate variability and their impacts on water and agriculture in their
respective sections of the Himalayas and selected watersheds. These studies
also collated and analysed pertinent data from various sources to identify
global change associated socio-economic impacts with adaptive responses
(spontaneous and planned); and
- A regional background paper and a draft synthesis report were prepared.
An intensive 3-day, year-end workshop was held (back-to-back with APN
2002-12) in January 2003 in Kathmandu, Nepal where keynote background papers
and results of country level studies and the draft synthesis report were
presented and discussed. Detailed work plans and timelines for year two
activities were also prepared and an outline for the country studies and
data formats were finalized.
Future directions and follow-up work
In the second year/final phase (2003/2004), the project work
will be directed to global change related vulnerability analysis and integrated
impact assessment with respect to food security and water resources including
highland-lowland transfer of resources in the Himalayan Mountain regions.
Attention will be on providing information needed to reduce the vulnerability
of Himalayan water resources, agricultural systems and mountain peoples'
livelihoods, to global change. The activities will include:
- The database generated in the first year will be developed further
and made more quantitative through various measures including some field
studies and interviews with key players;
- Selected GCM-based RCMs, as well as economy-ecology models, will
be used to develop vulnerability and impact assessment scenarios;
- Country level workshops will be organized in the participating countries
with mountain stakeholders and policy makers;
- Villages and groups within and between watersheds will be identified
that have greater water and food security; and qualitative analysis of
institutional and other strengths that provide resilience will also be
carried out;
- Workshop/Seminar will be held in Kathmandu in December 2003 for finalization
and dissemination of the research findings among researchers, stakeholders
and policy makers; and
- Final report will be published and disseminated through web site
as well. Papers based on the research will be submitted for publication
in peer-reviewed Journals.
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