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Project Leader	Dr. Nguyen Huu NINH Center for Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED) A01, K40, 279/24, Giang Vo, Hanoi VIETNAM Tel/Fax: + 84-4-851-5213 Email: cered@hn.vnn.vn
Funding	US $30,000
Participating countries	Australia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

Introduction/Background
The proposal for the current training workshop was based on recommendations at the workshop on The Impact of El Nino and La Nina on Southeast Asia (APN 99003, web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/floor0/briefing/igcn/igcn2000.htm), sponsored by APN and held in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2000, which were then refined into specific goals during a series of consultations with regional and international stakeholders, including meetings in Cambodia and Lao PDR undertaken in February 2001 to review the particular situation in these countries.

The aim of the training workshop on the development of seasonal climate forecasting for the Indochina region was to develop regional capacity with regard to short-term prediction of El Nino and La Nina impacts. The workshop covered the development and use of statistical and model-based forecasts of the effects of El Nino and La Nina on the climate of Southeast Asia.

The training workshop "Forecasting El Nino and La Nina in Indochina" was organized by the Center for Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED), Hanoi, Vietnam with technical assistance from the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom on behalf of the Indochina Global Change Network (IGCN) and was held in Hanoi, Vietnam, from 21-25 January 2002.

Outline of activities conducted
The training approach taken during the workshop was "training by doing". The team of international advisors supported this process. The workshop agenda consisted of:

• An initial overview session, documenting the recent development of the science of El Nino and La Nina, which was attended by around 100 scientists and policymakers;
• Two working sessions during which forecast use then forecast requirements were discussed in detail by four teams. Each team was supported by an international advisor, with consultation with other experts available as required;
• Two formal training sessions, involving practical exercises, covering statistical forecasting and the interpretation of forecasts (particularly global model-based predictions); then
• National activities for the coming months to a year were planned and follow-up support was organized for national and issue-based teams.

  The four teams worked through a series of tasks, individually then as a group, that led to the definition of the "ideal" forecast they would like to receive. Planning national activities began with a SWOT analysis, to define national Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in support of the effective identification of priorities. Each working session ended with a plenary report-back and discussion and the results were carried forward to the next session.

• Develop forecasting techniques:
  The workshop identified three timeframes as a context for activities:
  - past and present which focuses on the use of the climate data for the region as a means of identifying past climate impacts of El Nino and La Nina and of monitoring on-going trends;
  - medium-term (month to a season) within which statistical forecast methods can be developed at the national level, often based on persistence, continuity and lag effects between regions, to provide predictions of local impacts; and
  - long-term (3 months to a year) which involves the use of forecasts available from the international community of the emergence, development and decay of these events.
• Strengthen national and regional capacity: Training must be a high priority. Adequate resources in terms of technical needs, communications, staffing and funding must support this effort.
• Strengthen government support and improve public awareness.
• Regional and international cooperation: increase interaction with the wider community, not only through participation in formal scientific programmes but also through informal contact, by email for example, with individual scientists.

• Development of forecast techniques.
• Capacity strengthening of the region over the coming months and seasons.
• Regional cooperation should be formalized in some form of regional climate network, and would take place as informal collaboration between scientists.
• The longer-term: the possibility of a region-wide project to develop further these activities with additional resources given serious consideration.