PROJECT #2001-01
Indices and Indicators for Monitoring Trends in Climate Extremes
| Project Leader |
Dr. Michael MANTON & Dr. Neville NICHOLLS
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC)
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne VIC 3001
AUSTRALIA
Tel: +61-3-9669-4444
Fax: +61-3-9669-4660
Email: m.manton@bom.gov.au
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| Funding |
US $48,000
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| Participating countries |
Australia, China, Fiji, French Polynesia, Indonesia,
Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Caledonia, New Zealand,
Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
Thailand, Vietnam
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A participant from each of the listed countries was funded by APN.
A further eleven participants from BMRC, the National Climate Centre, and
CSIRO Atmospheric Research in Australia were self-funded. There were
two participants from New Zealand, one of whom was also self-funded.
Introduction/Background
The importance of monitoring and analysing climate extremes has been
highlighted by the last two assessment reports of the IPCC. Over the last
few years, there has been increased research in developed countries aimed
at improving the analysis of climate extremes. However, the national and
regional trends in climate extremes are of interest to all countries, and
this APN project aims first to enhance the capacity of participating countries
to monitor and analyse their own data and secondly to enable national trends
to be put into a regional context.
The project involved the third of a series of Workshops on Climate Extremes
in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, which was held at the Bureau of
Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 18-20 April 2001. Previous APN Workshops
had been held in December 1998 and December 1999. The 1999 Workshop
led to the publication of a paper describing trends in extremes over Southeast
Asia and the South Pacific over the past forty years (Manton et al., 2001).
The aims of the Third Workshop were to update the data and analyses conducted
in the Second Workshop, to apply new software for analysing and monitoring
climate extremes, and to exchange new information and software related
to climate extremes.
Outline of activities conducted
The key activity of the project was the three-day workshop held in
Melbourne in April 2001. The workshop was hosted and supported by
the BMRC, and it involved participants from seventeen countries.
Much of the first morning was spent exchanging information about relevant
recent meetings on climate extremes and variability. The earlier
APN workshops provided a catalyst for the convening of workshops in other
regions of the world. The results of these workshops, in the Caribbean
and in Africa, were discussed.
Progress in analysing daily rainfall and temperature data since the
1999 APN Workshop was discussed, and it was noted that nearly all countries
had updated their data. The updated data led to a few changes in
trends at a small number of stations. However, the trends detected
in 1999 have generally been maintained. The remainder of the first
day of the workshop was spent on presentations on metadata, the development
of drought indices, and a project to digitise early Australian climate
data. The second day was spent on country presentations of their continuing
work on climate extremes. Many countries have analysed data from
additional stations to the initial five or six used in the 1999 analysis.
The remainder of the day was devoted to participants testing the ClimDex
software, developed by USA NCDC and used in the workshops in the Caribbean
and Africa. The third day commenced with presentations on the Third Assessment
Report of the IPCC, with a focus on observed climate change and on predicted
changes. There were also presentations on quality control software
and on ways to use the Internet for climate research. There was a
final discussion on plans and priorities for future regional work on climate
extremes.
Following the workshop, a web page for the APN Network for Climate Extremes
was established at <http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/csr/apn>. The web page
contains documents and software from the three APN workshops, as well as
some results of the analyses.
Outcomes/Products
The products from the project include:
- CDROM provided to each participant containing selected presentations
from the workshop and software for analysing climate data for extreme events
(ClimDex and MASH)
- updated analysis of national data on climate extremes, carried out
by individual participants
- updated regional analysis of climate extremes, providing a regional
context for national analyses
- a web page at <http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/csr/apn>
of products from the APN workshops
The outcomes of the workshop include:
- maintenance of the APN profile in the international scientific community
- strengthened regional links through collaborative work across seventeen
countries
- enhanced understanding of climate in the Asia Pacific region
Future directions/Follow-up work
It is proposed that further workshops should be held approximately
annually to maintain the network of scientists focused on the analysis
of climate extremes, to provide updated software for the analysis of climate
extremes, and to update the regional analyses of climate extremes.
The highest priority activity for the future was seen by the participants
in the third workshop to be enhanced work on the digitisation and analysis
of historical pressure, rainfall and temperature data.
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