PROJECT #2000-04
APN Workshop on Climate Variability and Trends In Oceania
| Project Leader |
Dr. Jim SALINGER
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
P. O. Box 109 695
Newmarket, Auckland
NEW ZEALAND
Tel: + 64-9-375-2053
Fax: + 64-9-375-2051
Email: j.salinger@niwa.cri.nz
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| Funding |
US $17,800
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| Participating countries |
Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Malaysia, New Caledonia,
New Zealand, Papua-New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
|
Introduction/Background
Oceania occupies a large portion of the Pacific Basin, and climate
and ocean/atmosphere interactions of global significance occur here on
annual to decadal time-scales. These include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), an ENSO-like variation
which modulate climate on time scales of two to three decades, which cause
significant climate change in parts of Oceania and beyond. The aims
of this workshop were to encourage regional participation in global studies
to monitor and detect trends and variability in climate.
By sharing experiences within the region, providing a forum for discussion
with access to resources available from the international scientific community,
and specific recommendations for action, the workshop took a modest step
towards enhancing both regional and national capacity for Oceania countries
to determine and understand their climate variability and trends.
The workshop had wide involvement of Pacific Island Countries and national
meteorological services in the region, in collaboration with the South
Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the WMO Sub-Regional
Office in Apia.
Outline of activities conducted
The first session of the Auckland workshop consisted of background
papers on observed global and regional climate trends and variability,
and climate change detection. A series of papers covered historical
data resources and the removing of data biases through homogeneity analyses.
Workshop participants presented overviews on the second day of historical
and observed climate data resources available in their own countries to
study climate trends and variability, along with indications of analyses
that had already been undertaken. There was a large variation in
the range of data resources available; with some countries having a high
quality reference climate station network, and data stored on Oracle relational
databases with metadata, to those with a very sparse climate network and
information stored on PCs. Many countries have a significant paper
archive of data requiring digitisation.
In the last session on the second day methods of analysis of data for
climate trends and variability were discussed, in particular selection
of climate indices for analysis, time series analysis and establishment
of significance of any trends.
On the final day of the Auckland workshop SPREP and the WMO Sub-Regional
office presented regional perspectives. SPREP has surveyed the needs
of meteorological services in the region and the results highlight an enormous
variation in the resources and expertises of the national meteorological
agencies, highlighted in annual budgets varying from US $10,000 to US $5
million. NIWA maintains a sub regional Pacific community climate database
(SPCCD) for many of the Oceania countries. Its primary purpose is as a
resource for the countries that have lodged their data in the SPCCD, to
provide security of the data and as a source of data for climate research.
In the final session of the day, participants separated into two breakout
groups. These groups addressed issues on Oceania data resources,
analysis techniques and local and regional synthesis and collaboration.
The breakout groups reported their conclusions to the final plenary session
where recommendations were formed.
Outcomes/Products
- Commenced regional participation in global studies to monitor and
detect trends and variability in climate and improve capacity building;
- Established contacts within Oceania to progress research on climate
change and variability;
- Enhanced regional and national capacity for Oceania countries to
determine and understand their climate variability and trends;
- Identified the status and availability of relevant historical climate
data in the region;
- Recommended appropriate methods for analysis of climate trends and
variability;
- Established a collaborative project to analyse the national climate
records for trends and variability across Oceania; and
- Prepared a report on the workshop for the APN, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
Future directions/Follow-up work
- For the region, real-time data quality guidelines are to be developed
so that all data being used is of similar standard;
- An application is to be submitted to the APN to hold a second workshop
on climate variability and trends in Oceania in 2001. This would continue
the capacity building begun, and prepare a paper on country and regional
climate trends and variability for publication;
- Specific training programmes in statistical data analysis will be
introduced so that countries can describe climate trends and variability
in their data;
- The workshop recommendations and proceedings will be reported to
the CLIPS participants workshop in Auckland, New Zealand (29 Nov. - 15
Dec.) for discussion; and
- This project will provide direct input to the proposed APN programme
on ethnographic perspectives on resilience to climate variability in the
Pacific Islands to assess and detect climate change.
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