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Project Leader	Dr Nguyen Huu NINH Center for Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED) A01, K40, Giangvo Hanoi VIETNAM Tel/Fax: +84 4 8515213 Email: cered@hn.vnn.vn
Funding	US$ 50,600
Participating countries	Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, PR China, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

Introduction/Background
The events of 1997 and early 1998 have demonstrated that interannual climate variation related to the El Nino phenomenon has the capacity to exert a substantial influence on the social well being of Southeast Asia. The situation is most acute in the nations of Indochina - Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The aim of the project was to examine the impact of the El Nino/La Nina phenomenon on Southeast Asia from an interdisciplinary perspective, taking particular account of social and economic consequences (the human dimension), lessons for policy (in particular, the mitigation of natural hazards impacts and global change) and implications regarding the longer-term impact of global environmental change. This problem was addressed by assembling information regarding current understanding of the issue through a) an international workshop and b) by promoting further scientific work and policy development.

The project is an activity of the newly - formed Indochina Global Change Network (IGCN). The workshop The Impact of El Nino and La Nina on Southeast Asia was organized by the Center for Environment Research Education and Development, Hanoi, Vietnam, with the assistance of the University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom, on behalf of the Indochina Global Change Network and was held at the Fortuna Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam, from February 21st-23rd 2000.

Outline of activities conducted
The meeting brought together invited representatives of the scientific and decision-making communities from the focal Indochina Global Change Network nations of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia with experts from outside the region to assess current understanding and to consider how the scientists of this region, in particular, might promote effective responses. There was strong representation at the meeting from the Southeast Asian meteorological and climatological communities and experts in sectoral concerns, such as agriculture and water supplies, as well as policy analysts and policy makers also attended. By sharing experience both within the Southeast Asia region and further afield, by providing a forum for discussion, by providing access to resources available from the international community, and through specific recommendations for action, the workshop has taken a modest step towards enhancing the region's capacity to respond effectively to short-term climate variability and, in the longer-term, global environmental change.

Outcomes/Products
The workshop participants advanced a series of detailed recommendations, documented in the Workshop Report, regarding practical action that should be taken promptly to strengthen the region's capacity to respond effectively to El Nino and La Nina events. They strongly endorsed moves towards a more proactive response to such hazards.

The workshop took place against a backdrop of changing conditions in the key indicator regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Recognizing their responsibility to respond to the latest information regarding the likely breakdown of the prevailing La Nina event, the workshop participants advanced three recommendations for immediate action that constitute a precautionary response to the latest assessment, preparing the ground for a more, concerted response to the next El Nino event, whenever that might occur.

The workshop participants noted that a more definite assessment should be available by June 2000 and strongly supported the existing proposal that a regional outlook forum be held in August 2000.

The recommendations for immediate action are that:

1. In each country, a workshop should be organized bringing together representatives from government agencies and other stakeholders to draw attention to the latest assessment, provide information about potential impacts, open channels of communication, ensure full cooperation, and mobilize support for the strengthening of response strategies, thereby facilitating further action as later developments dictate.

2. In each country, meteorological and climatological agencies should ensure prompt and continual monitoring of El Nino forecasts available internationally, and of local indicators of effects and impacts, and make this information widely available in appropriate forms.

3. Each national meteorological agency should formally request, as a matter of urgency, that the World Meteorological Organization make available regular El Nino advisory reports, as undertaken during the last El Nino event, to ensure a single, consistent, authoritative source of information. It is recognized that the preparation of operational assessments of this nature may not be considered to be within the existing remit of the World Meteorological Organization and will have resource implications. Nevertheless, El Nino and La Nina represent a global problem, requiring a high degree of international cooperation such as is already manifest in support for this agency. Moreover, the multiplicity of forecasts, at times divergent and of varying reliability, warrants the intervention of a single, authoritative agency to provide a clear guide to the scientific consensus.

Finally, the workshop participants endorsed a statement regarding the likely breakdown of La Nina conditions this year. This statement, appended to this report, presents an expert assessment of the current forecasts and is carefully worded, calling for action without being unduly alarmist. It will be used as a basis for reports to relevant agencies and stakeholders, press releases and information for the general public, prepared by workshop participants on returning to their own countries.

Future directions/follow-up work
Alongside the workshop, the other main activity on this project is follow-up work to ensure that the workshop has a lasting impact on the development of regional policy with regard to averting the worst impacts of El Nino and La Nina and taking advantage of beneficial effects.

The project has produced an 80-page Workshop Report, containing an account of the meeting and the detailed conclusions and recommendations of the participants as well as summary papers from the invited speakers. This will be distributed widely within the region and to key international agencies. Based on this report, shorter briefing documents targeted at the scientific and policy communities of the region are being prepared. All this material will also be available in electronic format at (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/), through the collaboration of the Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary, an electronic information service supporting developing country work on climate issues.

Finally, workshop participants are committed to following up the recommendations of the meeting and will keep the workshop organizers informed of their subsequent activities.

The Indochina Global Change Network will now solicit funds from various sources to follow-up two specific recommendations of the workshop concerning:

a.) the organization of training workshops on climate prediction techniques and climate impact assessment for the meteorological and climatological communities of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam; and,

b.) short fellowships for scientists from these nations to work with international modeling groups as they produce seasonal forecasts.

Furthermore plans for specific regional research projects may be developed.

Project Leader

Dr Nguyen Huu NINH
Center for Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED)
A01, K40, Giangvo
Hanoi
VIETNAM
Tel/Fax: +84 4 8515213
Email: cered@hn.vnn.vn
 
 

BREAKDOWN OF LA NINA LIKELY:  NEED TO MONITOR KEY EL NINO INDICATORS AND OPEN CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION
Statement issued by participants at the workshop
Impact of El Nino and La Nina on Southeast Asia
Hanoi, Vietnam
23rd February 2000
The latest evidence from oceanographic and atmospheric information from across the equatorial Pacific Ocean is suggesting that the current La Nina pattern will soon wane. Ocean-atmosphere model predictions, together with our understanding of the normal course of the life cycle of La Nina, suggest that the current La Nina will fade out by about June 2000.

Some predictions suggest that there is potential for warming of the ocean in the central and eastern Pacific beyond June 2000. Such warming would indicate a shift toward an El Nino phase (that is, the opposite pattern to La Nina) developing the second half of the year 2000, though of unknown magnitude at this stage.

It should be emphasized that the forecasts that are being made by some agencies of an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean this year are being produced while most indicators are still at a pre-development stage. Therefore, there still exists some time for conditions to take a different course over the next three months to May 2000.

Nevertheless, it is strongly suggested that local meteorological, climatological and other institutions, as a precautionary response to this assessment, should monitor key parameters, such as sea surface temperature and other El Nino indicators, very closely over the next three to six months in order to gauge the further potential, or otherwise, of El Nino development later this year.

It is further recommended that effective communication channels between local meteorological and climatological agencies, other relevant agencies and stakeholders in potentially-affected sectors be set up with some urgency in order to facilitate appropriate means of dissemination of warnings and other information and, if it proves necessary, more concerted action at a later date.