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APN Newsletter Vol 6, No. 3, July 2000


Message from the APN Director

It is almost a year since the APN Secretariat relocated to Kobe, Japan. The second term will start with the urbanisation symposium and workshop. The Second APN International Symposium entitled "Urbanisation in Asia and the Global Environment" will be held on 11 July in conjunction with the "Japan Flora 2000", the international flower exhibition held on Awaji Island near Kobe until Autumn.  12-14 July, we will have the Second Planning Workshop on "Urbanisation, Industrial Transformation and Environmental Change" to develop research projects in the region.  The workshop will focus on three areas: GHGs, Water Resources and Transportation.

The feature of this edition is coastal management.  Coastal areas where sea and land interact are the most productive part of nature and at the same time the areas where human activities tend to be concentrated.  In addition, such areas are vulnerable to natural disasters and sea-level rise related to global warming.  Management of coastal areas is one of the most challenging issues we face today.

This year we funded three projects related to coastal management. Among them, APN/SURVAS/IGBP Joint Conference on Coastal Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation, scheduled for November in Kobe, is intended to put together the vulnerability assessments of coastal areas in the Asia-Pacific region.  This is  part of an attempt to conduct a global assessment, which will be supported by  ENRICH.  Similar assessments for Europe and Africa will also be supported by ENRICH. Hence, a prime example of cooperative efforts between regional networks.


Hiroaki Takagi

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

 

FROM THE SECRETARIAT

APN Workshops on Monitoring Trends in Climate Extremes

M.J. Manton and N. Nicholls, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia.

The global community has a keen interest in the potential impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on regional climate.  This interest has led to a substantial effort by researchers to collate and analyse climate data from around the world to identify and explain any trends or changes in climate over recent decades.  There has been a particular focus on trends in climate extremes, such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall, as these events can have a profound impact on all societies, as well as natural ecosystems.

In December 1998 and December 1999 the APN sponsored two workshops at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) bringing together scientist from 15 countries in the South East Asia ? Western Pacific Region to promote participation in the evolving international activities aimed at monitoring and detecting trends and changes in climate extremes. The main product from the workshops was a scientific report analysing rainfall and temperature trends across the region. The report has been submitted to a refereed journal for publication and to the co-ordinating lead authors of the observations chapter of the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The unique results of the workshop, developed by a unique process, will be incorporated in the IPCC report.

A measure of the significance of the workshops is highlighted by the observation that the process is being copied by other groups.  The World Climate Research Programme's CLIVAR program and the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Climatology jointly sponsor a Working Group on Climate Change Detection (WGCCD).  The WGCCD has now decided to co-ordinate a series of regional capacity-building workshops designed to facilitate the development and exchange of climate indices.  The WGCCD recognises the APN workshop in Melbourne as the model to follow in organising this activity.

It is clear that the APN workshops on trends in climate extremes have led to the generation of information of broad significance to the region.  In addition, the workshops have provided a model for the promotion of such activity in other parts of the world.

A more detailed report of the workshop (APN99013) is available on APN homepage www.apn.gr.jp/p-rep9913.htm

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

APN CALL FOR PROPOSALS 2000

Info and guidelines are available on our home page here or from the Secretariat<info@apn.gr.jp> Please note the September 30 deadline for full proposals.

THANK YOU

After stepping down as Co-Chair of the Scientific Planning Group, Prof. Higuchi has also resigned as a SPG member, in order to focus on his role as Director of Nagoya City Science Museum. The APN Secretariat thanks him for his outstanding contributions to the development of the APN and wishes him all the best with his future endeavours.

 

Guest Article
IGBP/LOICZ in the APN Region - Goals, Approaches, Outlook

Hartwig Kremer, LOICZ IPO, Texel,
The Netherlands

Introduction
IGBP/LOICZ synthesizes past, ongoing and future science on global change in the coastal zone to provide a better understanding of

  • the coastal zone as a sink or source of CO2
  • the fluxes and mass balances of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in the coastal zone, and
  • the role of the coastal zone in trace gas (e.g., DMS, NOx) emissions

Increasing attention is being paid to the human dimension-oriented LOICZ questions:

  • How are humans altering these mass balances, and what are the consequences?
  • How do changes in land use, climate and sea level alter the fluxes and retention of water and particulate matter in the coastal zone, and affect coastal morphodynamics?
  • How can knowledge of the processes and impacts of biogeochemical and socio-economic changes be applied to improve integrated management of the coastal environment?

In its commitment to provide a global overview of coastal change, LOICZ develops and applies standardized protocols and scientific methodologies and seeks to scale up scientific information from local via regional to global scales.

In order to achieve global coverage of information and issues, LOICZ is developing a typology database comprising more than one hundred physical, ecological and socio-economic parameters for the world's coastal zones. In collaboration with the IGBP BAHC program, the original scale of one geographical degree per coastal pixel is currently being refined to half degree. This will give a regional and global coverage providing data and information for analytical and statistical processing for various up-scaling exercises and regional scenario analysis of coastal change and socio economic response. While this more detailed scale of coastal pixels enables much more secondary data to be drawn in for comparison the LOICZ/BAHC co-operation also links the information on fluxes and flux-changes along river catchments and how they interact with coastal system functioning.

Clustering and aggregating data and information leads to discrete, scientifically valid units based on natural and socio-economic features and processes. Similarities and differences of indicator parameters (e.g. C, N, P and sediment fluxes, pressures and social settings) between the various coastal pixels can be visualized. The LOICZ typology tools (including the LOICZVIEW software) also provide ways of linking to existing global data models for further modeling of coastal change for instance under various climate change predictions. The initial products are posted to web-sites http://water.kgs.ukans.edu:888/public/Typpages/index.htm

LOICZ typology provides "the glue" between the biogeochemical and integrated modeling, the regional LOICZ BASINS projects on river catchments and their critical loads to the coastal sea, and allows upscaling to various scales by also drawing in and processing secondary data.

Also serving the standardization of approaches and products (sets of indicators for change and/or sustainable development and integrated modelling) LOICZ tries to follow the DPSIR scheme (OECD 1993, LOICZ Reports & Studies Vol. 11, 1998), which provides a framework for comparable site description and allocation of data. It reviews coastal change in terms of its :

DRIVERS: forcing functions causing change such as damming, urbanization or more general economic activities;

PRESSURES affecting key ecosystem and social system functioning; (indicating human pressures on the environment e.g. energy, industry, agriculture, fisheries)

STATE and STATE-CHANGE: are key variables that a) characterize the boundary conditions of the coastal systems and b) indicate the changes the systems undergo due to natural and human action -. (Indicators are designed to give an overview of the environmental status and its development over time in the form of

  • Biogeochemical and physical fluxes of C, N, P, water and sediment (see the SWOL example below)
  • Economic fluxes relating to changes in resource flows from coastal systems, their value and changes in economic activity
  • Social fluxes e.g. food supply and price relating to food security, public health, welfare, flooding hazards.

IMPACT: the effects on systems and how they are expressed, i.e. habitats, biodiversity, social and economic functioning and resource and services availability and use;

RESPONSE: the action taken (reflecting coastal management) to either protect against change (e.g. increased nutrient input or sea level rise), ameliorate adverse effects and/or ensure sustainable use of the system resources.

Investigating Response, in particular if accounting for a dynamic time component (between at least two time spots from the same location) provides insight into how societal acknowledgement of Pressures, State-changes and Impact leads to appropriate action, i.e. success or failure of sustainable coastal usage/management. A global synthesizing experiment such as LOICZ can provide decision makers with the set of relevant scientific indicators to enable this judgement. It can even more provide a neutral platform for joint discussion and generation of joint ownership of issues between scientific and user bodies.

The LOICZ core project
Among various LOICZ activities in Australasia the South East Asian core project, SARCS/WOTRO/LOICZ, SWOL, since 1996 has given practical insight as to what extent the indicators and holistic approach have been investigated. Major impetus was and is expected from integrating natural and social and economic science. Not pre-empting any scientific judgement of this effort it seems likely that future issue driven work within the LOICZ project will need to build considerably on the experiences in SWOL focussing on:

  • evaluating the biogeochemical flux changes (related sectoral activities);
  • evaluating impacts (e.g. gains and losses of environmental goods and services);
  • further development and application of indicators addressing the impact/response relationship;

The major goal of SWOL I till to date has been to provide better scientific understanding on human induced flux changes and related Pressure - State interaction in affected coastal zones. The regional implication was to make reference to the rapid developments of South East Asia in the past, their effects on demography and thus anthropogenic drivers of environmental change as well as the influence of natural global change processes. In the recently terminated first stage, the study attempted to determine how residuals derived from waste production by land and water-based economic activities affect the cycling of materials and the health of the coastal environment. Investigation sites so far are the Merbok Mangrove System, Malaysia, the Lingayen Gulf, northern Philippines, Ban Don Bay, Thailand, and the Red River, Vietnam.

The approach was to budget those contributions of nitrogen, N, and phosphorus, P, generated by economic activities. Appropriate economic sectors were identified. Their respective residual production including waste loading and environmental assimilation along horizontal pathways to coastal waters were calculated considering fluxes in surface and groundwater. In fact groundwater seepage, while often overlooked as the usually invisible part of horizontal fluxes was presumed in this case to contribute around 10% to the total surface runoff into the Gulf.

One example of the various SWOL results, the Lingayen Gulf case study, shows that household activities accounted for 32% of nitrogen and 52% of phosphorus estimated to reach coastal waters. Non-point agricultural runoff contributed 64% of total nitrogen, 45% of total phosphorus and 97% of suspended solids. These values underline the significant contribution of population and agriculture to the loading of nutrients and suspended solids in this area.

Population pressures in the area shows a rather moderate development. The initial figure of 2.6 million people (in 1990) is expected to almost double in 30 years at an annual growth rate of 1.45%, which is about 1% lower than the national growth rate in the Philippines. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries accounted for 43% of regional GDP, the service sector contributed 42%, and industry 15% in 1995. Estuarine aquaculture with secondary stands of mangrove and nipa swamps concentrates here and some sandy substrate and beaches provide for a moderately flourishing coastal tourism.

In total. taking the loads of inorganic phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended solids as indicators for human activities along the catchments draining into the Gulf and aquaculture as the sea-based major activity, 33% of the ambient DIP, and 41% of the DIN concentration as well as 37-100% of the ambient TSS load can be attributed to economic sectors.

What are the management implications? Having found a system that seems to be nearly in balance metabolically as it efficiently recycles organic matter but which receives considerable organic phosphorous loads, an increase in organic pollution will probably lead to changes in recycling efficiency and perhaps to a greater systemic imbalance. If changes in economic activities also increase the delivery rates of suspended solids into the Gulf, an impact on carbon fixation by autotrophs and on their biodiversity and changes in sediment dispersal patterns, with consequences on bathymetry and coastal geomorphology might result.

Outlook
LOICZ supports the regional efforts aiming at a second SWOL period, including continued onsite studies and being paralleled by a regional upscaling project. The onsite work will focus on the human dimensions of coastal changes - how humans alter systems and how changes feed back on society - in the various SWOL locations among others is expected to provide more detailed modeling of horizontal residual delivery and transport of dissolved organic N and P along the water cascade. Better insight in coastal system functioning (e.g. autotrophy / heterotrophy in relation to distance from material sources) and simulations of changing demographic and economic pressures will help determine coastal and societal vulnerability.

As outlined earlier this should ideally go with a socio-economic module to validate observed / predicted changes in view of gains and losses of environmental goods and services in monetary terms (backed up by the joint LOICZ - Univ. Maryland project under R. Costanza). Fed into a coastal typology for upscaling the different interdisciplinary scenarios expected to come out can serve as a major regional information and management tool. The Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research, WOTRO, has expressed its interest to continue with partially financial support for a future SWOL project in particular if accompanied by an upscaling module.

This is in recognition, that SWOL science does not only serve as a platform for integrated modeling and higher detailed local studies. Taken its past experiences and capacities built and the implication of this work to cover regional hot spots and management issues in Australasia and beyond there is a strong rational for such an upscaling initiative. This advanced typology approach, paralleling a continued SWOL II might become a key effort for a regional synthesis, upscaling to global dimensions and interregional science transfer.

LOICZ is prepared to support a regional Asian upscaling project through its own continued global scientific typology development and to facilitate data analysis and processing along peer reviewed and standardized scientific protocols. APN would be an effective platform to help involving other institutions from the region and accessing secondary data from regional hot spots. Links should therefore be sought to bodies/projects such as SARCS, various National Projects, Regional Seas Programme (UNEP), the Red River Project (WOTRO), Sea Basin, and for example the GEF South China Sea initiative. Furthermore links and exchange with other APN funded projects will provide for a broader spectrum of regional issues like coastal vulnerability,

  • APN/SURVAS/IGBP Conference on Coastal Impacts of Climate Change & Adaptation (APN No.: 2000-09) and
  • Recent Sea-Level Change and Coastal Management Implications for Oceania (APN No.: 2000-11);

In particular through the last mentioned link synergies might be generated allowing for SWOL like scientific studies addressing the human dimension of coastal change and horizontal flux perturbation to be established also as part of the LOICZ synthesis in island dominated regions.

Synergies and capacity building
The scientific community increasing attention is being paid to the holistic approach, which started in SWOL I (see for example LOICZ Proceedings of the 4th Open Science Meeting, Bahia Blanca, Nov.1999, partly supported by APN). It has started to serve as a platform for the improvement of integrative science for various locations, various projects and users. Examples are the regional LOICZ BASINS projects dealing with the question how best to derive critical loads to the coast, from material fluxes through catchments, and how they determine the sustainable functioning of both ? the human and environmental systems. An East Asian LOICZ Network was established in October 1999 (Qingdao, China) and a LOICZ EAST ASIA BASINS workshop is scheduled for late November 2000.

BASINS in general does not only benefit from SWOL and typology achievements but in return provides higher order modeling tools for advanced analysis of assimilation processes (see for example the MONERIS project as outlined in LOICZ newsletter No. 12, Sep. 1999). SWOL approaches on the other hand are also expected to contribute to the scientific TOR for the upcoming LOICZ Island Programs (one planned to take off for Oceania and South Asia in 2000 and the other one early next year for the Caribbean). They are intended to back up the Australasia BASINS (planned for spring 2001) and South American BASINS projects early 2001 at a later stage refining their respective regional synthesis.

As a key component of any continued onsite and upscaling work advanced capacity building  will ensure keeping up the momentum gained and appropriate exchange of SWOL experiences. APN has already acknowledged this need and provided considerable support through e.g.:

  • Training Workshop for Capacity Building and Networking in the Area of Biogeochemical (BGC) Budgeting and Socio-Economic Modeling, and Human Dimensions Aspects in the Coastal Systems of South Asia, (SASCOM-LOICZ, Sri Lanka 1999 and 2000 - both funded by APN, LOICZ and START - APN No.: 2000-07);
  • International Human Dimensions Workshop 2000 - Human Dimensions Issues in the Coastal Zone, IHDP Bonn Sep. 2000, - partly funded by APN, No.: APN 2000-06);
  • LOICZ OSM 4 - Bahia Blanca 1999, APN supported the Global Island working group dealing with question on how to build out the SWOL I and (potentially II) achievements into the coastal change issues of Island Regions (as a follow up two LOICZ R&S reports are underway and respective proposals to be developed)

Engaging with users
The usefulness of the interdisciplinary scientific approaches pursued in the LOICZ framework and in the South East Asian core project and the coastal typology project have already been acknowledged by various users. For example UNESCO/IOC's Coastal GOOS and ICAM programs have indicated interest in designing their global monitoring and management program pilot sites along the scientific approaches of LOICZ activities. In response strong working relations have already been established between IOC and LOICZ. However, for this kind of user transfers further momentum might be generated through the synergies of a close regional co-operation between LOICZ and another intergovernmental body like APN.

For further information, please contact
Hartwig Kremer, LOICZ IPO
kremer@nioznl

Summary
A continuing integrated Asian Core Project on Land ? Sea Interactions and Coastal Issues drawing on the experiences and design of the SARCS WOTRO LOICZ, SWOL, project could value add to the regional synthesizing and science transfer objectives of the APN. The project may furthermore benefit from linking closely to the ongoing science development, evaluation, synthesis and application of methods and standards in the global LOICZ project. A SWOL II while anticipating partial funding from sources outside the region, would seek further support for a complementary typology upscaling module to enable proper coverage of regional hot spots and appropriate links to global upscaling efforts. At the different demonstration sites, however, smaller scale higher order modeling work will be continued to deal with the major local issues of coastal management.

Delineating future regional LOICZ science building on the earlier work in Asia should see:

  1. the involvement of a strong socio economic module as currently being developed in the LOICZ;
  2. application of a typology enabling comparison and identification of similarities and differences among coastal areas on various spatial scales and against various scientific issues;
  3. enhanced involvement of regional data and institutions as well as strong science ? user relationships and engagement. This implies improved science dissemination and communication.

The APN provides an efficient platform to build out these efforts to a broad regional project. It will enable continuation and enhancement of capacity-building and networking with other regional and interregional projects as begun in SWOL I. Regional application of standardized tools for integrative coastal science, regional upscaling and dissemination of results to users can benefit considerably from close working links between LOICZ and the intergovernmental APN in a joint brokering effort towards issue driven science.

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

 

FEATURED ORGANIZATION:

The Cooperative Research Centre: An Australian Initiative

The Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) Program was established in 1990 and is funded by the Australian Commonwealth Government, through the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. The Program currently supports more than 65 CRCs from industry sectors including manufacturing, mining, energy, agriculture, medicine, communications and the environment.

The national CRC Program aims to maximise the capture of the benefits of research through the development of enhanced cooperative linkages between researchers, knowledge users and stakeholders in the public and private sector. The program is unique globally.

Australia's Cooperative Research Centre for Coastal Zone,
Estuary and Waterway Management:
The goal of the Coastal CRC is to bridge the gaps between science, the community and policy making organisations. The Coastal CRC will carry out quality science within five interlinked themes in management study areas using participatory approaches with stakeholders. The science will be applied in management study areas, initially in Queensland. The study areas are located in:

  • a major agricultural catchment at the Fitzroy River
  • a major industrial catchment at Port Curtis
  • a major urban catchment at Brisbane River and Moreton Bay

The Centre is also carrying out a National Estuary Audit involving an assessment on the condition of more than 900 estuaries around Australia. The Coastal CRC is a collaborative joint venture between several Australian participating organisations:

  • Brisbane City Council
  • Central Queensland University
  • Griffith University
  • University of Queensland
  • James Cook University
  • CSIRO
  • Queensland Department of Primary Industries
  • Queensland Environmental Protection Agency
  • Queensland Department of Natural Resources

As well, there are a number of other organisations, government agencies, local authorities and NGO's who have identified themselves as associates to the CRC. They include the Qld Commercial Fisherman's Organisation, Queensland Ports Corporation, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Sunfish, the Australian Geological Survey Office, Environment Australia, Shire Councils, etc.

Research Themes
Decision Frameworks
Aims to develop frameworks to facilitate coastal zone decision making through the integration of ecological, social, economic, cultural and legal considerations. The frameworks allow decision makers to integrate knowledge with different stakeholders and objectives.

Citizen Science and Education
Aims to increase community participation in coastal research, planning and decision making, and to facilitate training for stakeholder groups. The theme will also provide postgraduate student support.

Planning and Management
Aims to develop planning and restoration options and strategies to enhance ecosystem health, including river turbidity, open coastlines, effluent management and wetlands.

Ecosystem Processes
Aims to understand and predict coastal ecosystem behaviour, particularly responses to human activity, to support planning and management decisions. The theme will develop predictive models that simulate management options for the coastal zone.

Assessment and Monitoring
Aims to develop health indicators and remote sensing tools that accurately assess and monitor ecosystem health of the coastal zone. The theme, which includes an audit on the condition of Australian estuaries, will help evaluate the effectiveness of management and protection measures, and provide a long-term framework for local, state and national planning.

For further information, please contact:
CEO
Dr Roger Shaw
http://www.coastal.crc.org.au
Email: roger.shaw@dnr.qld.gov.au

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

APN SUPPORTED PROJECT

APN/SASCOM/LOICZ  Regional Training Workshop on Biogeochemical Budgeting and Socio-Economic Modelling for Coastal Scientists.   

18-22 September, 2000 Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Coastal zones form a unique environmental sub-system within the global environment with interactions between land, oceans and the atmosphere. There is continuous exchange of material across the coastal zones, particularly the nutrients containing carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The changes in land use and other human activities result in changes in these biogeochemical (BGC) fluxes, affecting the global carbon cycle and trace gas composition in the atmosphere. Also, in most countries with coastlines, urbanization and economic development take place in the coastal zone resulting in interactions between such human activities and the coastal environment.

In this respect, South Asian riverine systems play a very significant role in the global exchange of material flux between the land and the oceans. The Ganges-Brahmaputra and the Indus rivers are among the most sediment-laden rivers of the world, contributing about 20% of the global sediment flux to the oceans. The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, one of the largest in the world, is home to millions of people whose lives are affected annually by ravaging floods and cyclones. While their activities are expected to contribute to the natural processes taking place in the coastal zones, such interactions are least understood. However, for better management of the coastal zones, it is important to get a proper understanding of these processes.

Table 1. Sediment Delivery to the Ocean from South Asian Rivers.  
Sediment Delivery to the Ocean from South Asian Rivers    

Source

Quantity Mt/yr

Indus Plain 

260

Ganges-Brahmaputra Plain

1,100

Deccan Plateau - West 

354

Deccan Plateau - East 

771

East India and Myanmar

448

Source: K P Sharma, Proc. Workshop on Estuarine Modelling and Coastal Zone Management, 28-30 April, 1999, Colombo     
*The computations are based on natural sediment delivery in the absence of dams.

It is important that coastal environments are managed in a sustainable manner for which it is essential to adopt an integrated approach involving the physical environment and the socio-economic aspects. In order to achieve a better understanding of the coastal zone processes and their interactions, physical observations need to be supported by modelling  these processes. LOICZ has developed methodologies for carrying out these exercises, which could be applied in different geographical areas. These include both biogeochemical budgeting models and socio-economic models and models for integrating the two.

The Sri Lanka National Committee of the IGBP, realising the lack of capacity among scientists in the South Asian countries, organised a scoping workshop on Estuarine Modelling and Coastal Zone Management in April 1999 in Colombo. It was held in association with LOICZ and with financial assistance from START. Many coastal scientists from APN member countries, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka as well as from non-member countries Mauritius and Maldives participated. In addition, a large number of Sri Lankan scientists participated as observers. It transpired at this workshop that most participants did not have an adequate understanding of  biogeochemical budgeting. The National Committee therefore decided to organise a separate workshop on biogeochemical budgeting in association with LOICZ and SASCOM, for the benefit of the coastal scientists from South Asia, and sought APN support.     

The APN is providing the main support for the workshop, while START is supporting the participants from non-APN member countries and LOICZ the participation of resource persons. The objective of the Workshop, in particular, is to train coastal scientists in the use of current methodologies including computer models, enabling them to:  

  • Achieve a better understanding of the processes and improved capability of modelling sediment dynamics and biogeochemistry of coastal systems comprising estuaries including deltas and lagoons,
  • Assess the economic and social impacts of global climate change in the coastal aquatic systems and the extent to which measures for mitigation and adaptation to such impacts would affect the coastal human populations, and
  • Assess the impacts of human activities of economic importance being undertaken in  coastal zones, on the coastal environs and ecosystems, and the biogeochemical budgets.

Resource people will include senior scientists actively engaged in coastal modelling studies. The programme will include tutorial sessions, plenary sessions and 'hands-on' training sessions, which will allow participants to either work with their own data to develop budgets and models, or to work through case studies provided during the sessions. It is envisaged that at the end of the workshop, the participants would develop a suitable project proposal for submission to the APN and other funding agencies.

The announcement of the Workshop has already been circulated among the SASCOM member country representatives inviting nominations, which closed on 30 June 2000.
 

For further details please contact
<janakar@itmin.com>

The above project is one of 19 funded by the APN in 2000/2001.

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

Recent Sea-level Change and Coastal Management Implications for Oceania

This APN sponsored project (2000-11) involves scientists from Australia, Fiji, New Zealand and Samoa and is led by Associate Professor Nick Harvey of Adelaide University in South Australia.  The project is very significant because coastal environments in the Pacific are under considerable stress, and global change is expected to exacerbate existing problems.  The project will collect new data on recent sea-level changes in the region and then assess the coastal response to these sea-level variations.  This should provide some useful analogues for adapting current management practices.

The project, which is about to start, has two basic aims.  The first aim is to provide a focused global change framework for investigating recent sea-level change and coastal response in selected areas of Oceania, specifically Fiji, Tuvalu, Kiribati and The Marshall Islands.  This research will be conducted in close collaboration with researchers in the region and will also provide training for new researchers in Oceania.

The second aim is to use the scientific findings from the project to better inform coastal management policy in the region.  This will be done with key regional coastal policy advisers and adapted for different countries, particularly the vulnerable Sall Island States.  It will be conducted with existing agencies in Oceania to provide capacity building support.

One problem with sea-level research in the Pacific is that apart from any land movements, there are also significant short-term regional variations in sea level associated with climatic events such as El Nino.  These fluctuations may be of the same order of magnitude as predictions for sea-level rise associated with climatic warming over the next century.  A key component of this research project will be to identify coastal response to these shorter-term variations and compare this with coastal response to longer-term sea-level changes.

An example of longer-term sea-level change in Oceania is the geological evidence for a higher than present Holocene sea level on many of the Pacific Islands.  Preliminary reconnaissance for the APN project, conducted in Fiji with coastal expert Professor Roger McLean (Canberra, Australia) indicated a higher sea level on the south side of Viti Levu around 3-4,000 years ago.  Here, in-situ microatolls provide an excellent sea-level indicator from the geological record.  These corals are limited in upward growth by the water level, at time of growth, resulting in large circular flat structures which contain detailed internal growth rings similar to tree rings.

Another important aspect of the project is the fact that the field sites in the four countries (Fiji, Tuvalu, Kiribati and The Marshalls) span the equator and thus cover a range of stormy and calmer coastal environments, including the cyclone/hurricane belts in each hemisphere.  The variations in storminess together with sea-level and land-level changes all contribute to produce different coastal responses.

This project is complementary to short-term sea-level work being conducted by the Australian National Tidal Facility which currently has high-precision tide gauges at a number of sites in the Pacific.  However, the APN project will attempt to extend the knowledge of sea-level change and coastal response back in time by a few thousand years.  It is hoped that by combining geological studies of sea-level change with current scientific and local knowledge on variations in coastal response it will be possible to gain a better understanding for future management practices.

A  key element of the project is to work with people in the region and add to the local knowledge base.  Key Collaborators on the project are Professor Nunn (University of South Paciifc, Fiji), Dr Kench (International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, NZ), Dr Kalawin (South Pacific Regional Environment Program (SPREP), Samoa) and Professor McLean (Australian Defence Force Academy, Australia).  Finally, in January 2001 it is planned to hold a regional workshop in Fiji to discuss project progress and outcomes in order to link the science to policy.  It is expected that Dr Kalawin of SPREP will play an important role in the policy and capacity building phases of the project.

For further details, please contact
Dr. Nick Harvey
University of Adelaide
<nick.Harvey@adelaide.edu.au>

The above project is one of 19 funded by the APN in 2000/2001

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

REGIONAL NEWS

OCEANIA

Following the recent coup in Fiji, the University of the South Pacific rescheduled its semester and sent all  students home, while other university services continued unabated. The APN Secretariat hopes that a solution to the crisis in Fiji can be found soon.

The Pacific Island Climate Change Conference (PICCC): "Linking Science and Policy" was held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3-7 April 2000. The theme of the conference was to improve understanding and increase the capacity to respond to climate change and sea-level rise in the Pacific. The South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) in partnership with the National Tidal Facility organized the conference. The first two days of the conference consisted of presentations relating to climate change, climate variability and sea-level rise. Evening sessions provided participants with an opportunity to discuss linkages between science and policy and other subjects identified during the day sessions.

A special session on the third day provided a link between the science and policy/implementations streams. The remainder of the conference involved presentations and discussions leading to the development of the Draft Pacific Island Framework Strategy on Climate Change, Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise.  The document will provide a foundation for developing an ongoing coordinated approach, to enable Pacific Island countries to respond to issues raised during the conference.

The START-Oceania Committee represented at the Conference were Professor Michael Hamnett, Associate Professor Nick Harvey, Dr. John Campbell, Dr. Christian Henin, Dr. Graham Sems, Ms. Liz Wilson and Dr. Hassan Virji for START- International. Papers presented by the committee generated a lot of interest and discussion.

The second START-Oceania Committee meeting was held at the Club Raro Resort, Rarotonga, during the PICCC.  Items on the agenda included a review of current and future project activities for Oceania region and the APN Liaison Officer's role. The committee was happy to hear that Dr. Nick Harvey's projects "Recent sea-level change and coastal management implications for Oceania" and "International Human Dimensions Workshop 2000" had been funded by APN.

Future projects discussed included Biodiversity (Dr. C. Henin), Fresh Water Security (Dr. J. Campbell) and a project to develop ENSO impact information for a disaster accounting system (Prof. M. Hamnett). The committee was encouraged to send these proposals to the APN, for the next round of funding.

Compiled from report by APN Liaison Officer Ms. Liz Wilson

SOUTH ASIA

As a part of the IGBP synthesis initiative, START has commissioned scientists from various regions of the world to prepare reports on Regional Synthesis of Global Change Research. A Regional Synthesis Principal Authors meeting was held in the IGBP secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden from 2-4 May 2000. Principal authors from South Asia, South East Asia, Temperate East Asia and South Africa participated in this meeting. The meeting included presentation and discussion of all four regional synthesis chapters and writing sessions to improve the integration of the overall regional synthesis volume.  The volume will be published in early 2001.  A short paper for publication in SCIENCE is also in preparation.

The report is driven by the overall theme of  "Chemistry of the atmosphere".  There are seven chapters in the report. The 1st chapter is an "Overview". This describes the major features and biophysics of the region.  "Changing atmosphere" is the 2nd chapter and it deals with the atmospheric changes in south asia: its emissions, concentrations, pollution and the role of oceans, a comparison with global scenario, the vertical and horizontal transport of pollutants, the leaky troposphere and the ITCZ. The 3rd chapter on "Monsoon changes and extreme climate events" includes past changes in the monsoon in the region, results of model runs, instrumental records of monsoon changes, global change and the asian monsoon, and extreme climate events. Chapter 4, on "Implications of regional and global change for agriculture in south asia" describes the agricultural scenario of the region, relationships between climate variability and agriculture, climate change and its impact on agriculture. The 5th chapter deals with the "Carbon and nitrogen cycles in the aquatic systems" in the oceans surrounding the SASCOM region.   Chapter 6 on "Consequences of changes in land use: A case study of indo-gangetic plains" describes soil resources of the region, its water resources, climate, land use and land cover, and the agriculture potential. Chapter 7, on "Integrated impact assessment" deals with the driving forces in the region, a description of model predictions of climate change due to double CO2 and aerosol forcing. The subsequent sections in this chapter deal with the consequent impacts on agriculture, sea level rise, water resources, and impacts on health.

Three new publications have come out of SAS-RRC, they are:

M. Velayutham and T. Bhattacharya (eds.), Soil resources inventory and potential of agriculture development in the coastal region of India; SASCOM scientific report no. 14, April 1999.

Rashmi Paul and A. P. Mitra (eds.), Potential Implications of Kyoto Protocol on the Future Global Temperature and Sea-Level Trends, SASCOM Scientific Report no. 15, August 1999.

S. N. Das, R. S. Thakur and A. P. Mitra (eds.) Measurement and monitoring of Sulfur Dioxide, Nitric Oxide and suspended particulate matter in air ? published work from India; SASCOM Scientific Report no. 17, August 1999.

Compiled from report by APN Liaison Officer Dr. Sumana Bhattacharya

SOUTHEAST ASIA

The wrap-up activity under the project "Land-Use Change and Terrestrial Carbon Stocks" was a science-policy workshop titled "Terrestrial Carbon Assessment for Possible Trading Under Clean Development Mechanism Projects" held in Bogor, Indonesia from 28-29 February 2000.  This workshop examined the uncertainties of whether or not land-use change and the forestry sector should be included in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol.  About forty participants from government agencies, private sectors, research communities, and NGOs attended, and shared their views to provide policy makers and business communities with scientifically sound methodological and analytical approaches to assess terrestrial carbon before taking part in carbon trading, and to gain a better understanding on how to accommodate local public interests in the global community.  After extensive discussion, the participants recommended CDM in the forestry sector, but only if CDM supports sustainable forest management and if the benefits and risks are shared equally among involved parties.  The immediate action was for governments to give more serious thought to this issue.  Other recommendations were suggested and can be found in the project's final report.

The Integrated Modelling for SEA Basins project held a meeting in Phnom Penh from 6-8 March 2000.  The aim of this meeting was to introduce the SEA Basins project and the NAGA model to potential partners in Cambodia and the Mekong River Commission (MRC), and to explore the possibilities for future collaboration.  The project leaders explained how to input data and the required data format needed for the NAGA models.  In exchange, the MRC presented their hydrological model and environmental and water quality data.  Discussions are continuing on how MRC and SEA Basins can cooperate, and how SEA Basins can facilitate MRC's modelling activities, such as in areas of human resource and internet access.

SARCS held its 12th Business Meeting at the National Central University, Chung-li, China-Taipei from 17-19 April 2000.  Presentations on the status of on-going regional global change projects were given, as well as the usual discussions on internal SARCS matters.  This event was immediately followed by "The International Conference on Sustainable Development for Island Societies" at the same venue.  Participants from the disciplines of earth, ecological, and social sciences came together to discuss their common interests and experiences related to sustainable development issues for island societies.

Compiled from report by SARCS Liaison Officer Ms. Connie Chiang

TEMPERATE EAST ASIA

A Workshop on Global Carbon Cycling was held at START TEA-RC on March 20 with the initiative of visiting Prof. Berrien Moore III, Chairman of IGBP Scientific Committee. Sixteen senior Chinese  scientists attended the workshop. First, Prof. Moore briefly introduced the effort of IGBP to construct a research framework of global carbon cycling studies within its program and indicated the importance of linking the studies within each region and within each core project of IGBP. Several Chinese scientists then presented their on-going research on the terrestrial, atmospheric and oceanic carbon cycling, including both observations and numerical simulations. It was pointed out during the discussion that the solid basis of carbon research in China could strongly support the international co-operation and effort of IGBP, and that promotion of the studies and their importance is needed to attract the attention of governments and various funding sources. It was agreed that the Chinese scientific community and international programs such as IGBP will continue the efforts of these studies and exchanges via two further workshops later this year and early next year to have better understanding of the national and international improvements.

An Inception Workshop for the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP) (APN 2000-05) is to be held on June 26-29, 2000 at Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, participated mainly by seven participating modeling groups. The purpose of the meeting is to design an implementation plan of inter-comparison experiments, using a common framework for simulation, such as model domain, driving fields and buffer zone, topography and land cover, archived output variables for analysis, and the station data for validation. The capacity of regional climate simulation by the ensemble of mesoscale models will be evaluated to capture the climate features during March 1997 to September 1998. This period consisted of a complete annual cycle and two extreme climate events in East Asia, namely a hot and drought summer in 1997 and a severe flood disaster in 1998. The representative from the Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS) will outline lessons and suggestions through presenting the intercomparing simulations focusing on drought and flood periods in the central United States.

An International Conference on Climate and Environment Variability and Predictability (CEVP) will be held from 7 to 11 August 2000 at the New Asia Hotel, Shanghai, China. It lays emphasis on the latest advances in the field of climate and environment variability, climate disaster, their prediction and their impacts on human and society. The conference will consist of the following sessions: 1) Global climate variability and disaster; 2) Interannual and interdecadal climate variability; 3) Monsoon climate variability and predictability; 3) Ocean-atmosphere-land interaction; 4) Climate prediction; 5) Atmospheric environment variability; 6) Atmospheric environmental pollution, and 7) Climate impact. The Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences will organise the conference. For further information, please visit the website http://www.iap.ac.cn/CEVP2000.


Compiled from report APNLiaison Officer Mr. Zhibin Wan

Back to the contents of APN Newsletter July 2000

APN Liaison Officers
 
SARCS (Southeast Asia)
Ms. Connie Chiang
Environmental Research Institute
Chulalongkorn University
Payathai Road, Bangkok 10330
THAILAND
Tel: +66-2-218-8126, Fax: +66-2-255-4967
Email: connie@start.or.th

SASCOM (South Asia)
Dr. Sumana Bhattacharya
Room No. 209, National Physical Laboratory
Dr K. S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110 012, India
Tel: +91-11-574-5298, Fax: +91-11-5752678
Email: sumana@csnpl.ren.nic.in

START-Oceania
Ms. Liz Wilson
START-Oceania
c/o SPAS, University of the South Pacific
PO Box 1168, Suva, FIJI
Tel: +679-212-446, Fax: +679-302-548
Email: startoceania@usp.ac.fj

TEACOM (Temperate East Asia)
Mr. Zhibin Wan
c/o Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qi Jia Huo Zi, De Sheng Men Wai Street
Beijing, 100029 CHINA
Tel: +86-10-6204-1317, Fax: + 86-10-6204-5230
Email: sec@ast590.tea.ac.cn

APN Secretariat
5th Floor, IHD Centre Building, 1-5-1 Wakinohama Kaigan Dori, Chuo-ku, Kobe 651-0073, Japan
Tel: +81-78-230-8017, Fax: +81-78-230-8018
E-mail info@apn.gr.jp
Homepage http://www.apn.gr.jp

 

Views expressed in this newsletter do not necessarily represent those of the APN Secretariat.
APN Newsletter Editors: Martin Rice and Gerhard Breulmann
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