| | English || Japanese | |
|
|
|
|
| ** HOME ** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
APN Newsletters |
|
APN Newsletter January 2000
The APN took another step forward in October with the organisation of a symposium and workshops at our new home in Kobe. This is the first time that the APN has had the capacity to organise such events itself and therefore represents a new departure for the organisation. Further details are given in our cover story below. The APN Call for Proposals has once again generated a high level
of interest from researchers in the region. There has been a notable
improvement in the level of international collaboration which is
a positive sign. The proposals are currently under review and we
hope that we will be able to support some strong activities from
April this year. Hiroaki Takagi Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000
The first APN Global Change Symposium in Kobe, supported by Hyogo Prefectural Government, was a great success with over 300 people participating, and strong coverage from regional media. After the opening speeches, Professor Keiji Higuchi (Co-Chair of the APN's Scientific Planning Group) gave a brief introduction to the work of the APN. The remainder of the morning session examined the major global change issues from the global, regional and local perspectives. Dr. Jill Jaeger, Executive Director of IHDP, outlined her view of the challenges presented by global change to mankind and the types of research necessary to address those challenges. A regional perspective was given by Dr. Prodipto Ghosh of the ADB who focused on issues related to greenhouse gas emmissions in Asia. Finally, Prof. Akihiro Amano gave an overview of the Japanese approach to global change research. In the afternoon session, the four main presentations focused on some of the major issues within the region. Dr. Daniel Murdiyarso gave a perceptive talk on the effect of changes in land use on greenhouse gas emmissions in Southeast Asia, and the possibilities for human intervention. The changing atmosphere of South Asia was introduced by Professor AP Mitra. Professor Patrick Nunn used some stunning slides to illustrate the changing world of the insular Pacific, focusing on reefs, beaches and islands. Finally, Professor Congbin Fu. graphically illustrated the impacts of climate variability on life in Asia. Professor Roland Fuchs of START then provided a short commentary on the day's discussions before a lively question and answer session involving all the speakers. Urbanisation, Industrial Transformation and Environmental Change. The human activities that affect the global environment in the next century will largely be the economic and industrial activities that sustain urban life. Nowhere is this more the case than in Asia and the Pacific. The APN has therefore identified Urbanisation as a Key Scientific Priority for future research and convened this initial workshop to begin the development of a research agenda for a collaborative Program of Projects involving APN, teams of scientists affiliated with APN, development agencies, international financial institutions, and science agencies. Professor Richard Rockwell of the University of Michigan took the lead role in organising and chairing the workshop, which brought together representatives of the natural and social sciences, as well as multilateral aid agencies and policy makers. Despite differing backgrounds and perspectives the participants were able to develop a set of initial research foci for further investigation within the two days. These were - 1) Urban adapatation to hydrological changes associated with climate change; 2) Urban greenhouse budgets; 3) Revisiting technology as a solution to urban greenhouse gases; 4) Hot spots of urban and megacity development, with special reference to coastal zones; and 5) Forms of optimization of (a) environmental protection, (b) costs of environmental protection, and (c) improvement of the standard of living. This workshop was just the very first step in what will no doubt
be a long process before tangible results begin to emerge. However,
the APN is committed to supporting this work and we are very hopeful
that over the next year we can lay the foundations for a strong
research programme. Climate Prediction & Agriculture (CLIMAG) APN newsletter Vol.5, No.3 included an introduction to the CLIMAG project by Roland Fuchs, Director of START. Jointly sponsored by IGBP, IHDP and WCRP the project aims to utilise the growing ability to predict for certain regions climate variations on the scale of months to a year to improve crop management and decision making and increase production at local, national and regional scales. The Kobe workshop, led by Dr Michael Manton, considered three specific proposals with the potential to become regional CLIMAG demonstration projects. These were a South Asia Mixed Cropping System, a Southeast Asia Rice Cropping System and a Fiji Sugar Cane System. These candidate projects were judged against a previously agreed set of criteria for the elements of a regional CLIMAG demonstration project. The South Asia proposal was recommended to be ready to become a full regional CLIMAG demonstration project, while the other two were considered to be in the pilot activity phase requiring further background strategic research. START is now in the process of putting together a single proposal to the APN for support of these projects in 2000/ 2001. The APN Secretariat would like to thank all the participants of both workshops for their hard work, and in particular Michael Manton and Richard Rockwell as the main organisers. Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 5TH SPG AND IGM TO BE HELD IN ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN Pakistan has agreed to host the 5th meeting of the APN Scientific Planning Group (26-27 March 2000) and the 5th Inter-Governmental Meeting (29-30 March 2000) in Islamabad. This will be the first time these meetings have been held in South Asia. One of the main items of business will be the approval of the APN programme of activities for 2000/2001, and in particular the final selection of research proposals submitted under this year's APN Call for Proposals. In total, 72 eligible proposals were received by the 30 September deadline and these are currently undergoing the first stage of the review process. Other major items for the SPG include the review of the APN proposals process and the introduction of a consistent approach to identifying Key Scientific Priorities for future APN support. The IGM will discuss the development of a document for the formal recognition of APN by member countries. Initial preparations for the meetings are well underway - in October the APN Steering Group met in Kobe to discuss the major agenda items and first drafts of meeting papers have now been circulated. The APN Contingency Fund was put to further use with the addition of an extra project for 1999 - APN #99014, Support for the LOICZ Open Science Meeting. The APN was able to provide funds for 3 key researchers from the region to participate in the meeting, held in November at Bahia Blanca in Argentina. LOICZ (Land Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) is a core project of the IGBP. FEATURED ORGANIZATION The problem Climate prediction The IRI The IRI pursues its mission of enhancing society's capability to understand, predict and manage the impacts of seasonal climate fluctuations through five parallel, overlapping themes:
For further information, please contact: Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 TRACKING EL NINO FOR INFORMED POLICYMAKING - AN IAI PERSPECTIVE Guillermo P. Podesta, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) is the sister network of the APN operating in the Americas. This essay expresses the view of a scientist in the IAI region about the contributions that IAI has made toward understanding El Nino-related impacts and assisting IAI-member countries in translating El Nino-related research into sound policy. IAI recognized early on the importance of inter-annual climate variability in the Americas and the opportunities offered by the emerging ability to predict seasonal climate. Indeed, inter-annual climate variability was one of the seven original themes in IAI's Science Agenda and has continued to be an important component of IAI's scientific activities. Initially, most of IAI's projects focused on the general impacts of El Nino-like events on regional climate throughout the Americas. The 1997-1998 El Nino event ravaged Peru and Ecuador, where heavy flooding and mudslides caused several hundred deaths, drove thousands of people from their homes, affected fishery catches, and washed away valuable farmland and highways. Strong rainstorms hit the coast of California and caused severe floods in the northeastern part of Argentina. Floods also affected southern Brazil and sections of Uruguay. In other parts of the IAI region, the opposite problem occurred: lack of precipitation. In northeastern Brazil, a marked drought significantly reduced food supplies and caused large forest fires. But El Nino-related climate variability did not only have negative effects. For example, abundant summer precipitation in the Argentine Pampas (the flatlands of central-eastern Argentina) resulted in all-time high maize and soybean yields. And El Nino conditions have been linked with fewer cyclones or hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. A shift in the El Nino-related research agenda has begun to take place in the last couple of years. Scientists in the IAI region and elsewhere have realized that the emerging ability to predict climate offers an exciting opportunity to turn scientific results into "useable knowledge" for the benefit of policymakers and the public. Consequently, the IAI research agenda has expanded beyond the climate-related effects of El Nino to include a description of impacts on vulnerable societal sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, and human health. Most important, a major new goal of the IAI has been the exploration of mechanisms needed for the effective production, dissemination, and use of El Nino-related climate information tailored to the needs of specific regions or socioeconomic sectors. The IAI explicitly encouraged this "end to end" approach during the last round of the ISP program. As a consequence, the spectrum of IAI scientists involved in El Nino research has broadened significantly. Agronomists, hydrologists, fishery scientists, economists, sociologists, and experts from other disciplines have participated in recent El Nino-related workshops sponsored by IAI. Various other aspects of the El Nino impact on regional climates still need to be addressed by scientists throughout the Americas. In countries close to the tropical Pacific (e.g., Peru and Ecuador), the links between El Nino and local climate are reasonably well defined. However, in other parts of the IAI region, especially in extra-tropical regions, the links are more variable and other factors may play a role, modulating or influencing the El Nino signal. These effects need to be understood better to improve regional predictability. More attention also needs to be given to researching other impacts of El Nino besides the often-analyzed precipitation and mean temperature readings. For instance, an El Nino-related shift in the probability distributions of frosts or dry and hot spells may have significant influence on agricultural production, energy production and consumption, and human health. Scientists from the IAI region have a detailed understanding of regional climates, and are, therefore, in a unique position to address many of these issues. In the future, IAI should continue to pursue activities that are part of its mission to bridge the gap between scientific research and policymaking. Research is needed to learn how to communicate climate information, including uncertainty, in terms useful for making decisions. It is not sufficient to simply produce more accurate climate forecasts to derive societal benefits; climate information has value only if it serves to modify, in some way, the actions taken by decisionmakers in the public and private sectors. In many cases, however, users lack the knowledge necessary to appropriately incorporate climate information into their management or decision-making processes. Decision-support tools must be developed to explore the outcomes of various alternative actions in response to a climate scenario, such as a forecasted El Nino event. This article originally appeared in the IAI 1997/98 Annual Report and is reproduced here in an edited form courtesy of the IAI Directorate. Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000
MONITORING AND PREDICTION OF ENSO EVENT AND SSTA OVER THE WARM POOL IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN Y.H. Ding, National Climate Center, Beijing, China It is well known that there are close relationships between ENSO phenomenon and climate as well as socio-economic aspects in the tropical and other climatic zones. Numerous investigators have shown that the impacts of ENSO events on climate variability, especially disasters such as floods and droughts, cold injuries and heat waves in summer seasons, and typhoons and tropical cyclones in the Asian and western Pacific Oceanic regions are significant. It has caused huge socio-economic losses and degradated environment in the APN region. Many studies have revealed that there are some definite correlative relationships between the onset, mature and decaying stage of ENSO events and Asian winter and summer monsoon, and that sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western Pacific Ocean exert a teleconnection effect on the weather and climate in East Asia through the PJ (Pacific-Japan) pattern. Therefore, it is very important to improve our understanding and knowledge in these fields and essential to enhance the monitoring and prediction of ENSO events and the warm pool over the western Pacific Ocean at the seasonal and interannual time scales within our region. For the above purpose, the APN has funded the project "Monitoring and prediction of ENSO event and SSTA over the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean" (APN#99012) for 1999/2000. The major research subjects and expected outcomes are: 1) firstly, setting up an Internet monitoring system for ENSO events and warm pool in the cooperative countries; then, releasing information and monitoring bulletins to these countries; finally, releasing ENSO prediction information to the whole APN region; 2) investigating methods of ENSO predictions and operational applications; 3) organizing international workshops on ENSO and the warm pool in the APN region. This project will greatly improve regional and national capability to disseminate and exchange monitoring and prediction information through the development and establishment of an international network. This kind of infrastructure building is especially useful to assist developing countries in this region to receive timely information that will help prepare them for potential disasters. Internationally there are already several Homepages concerning the monitoring and prediction of ENSO events. Therefore our network should make available new information which is currently not easily accessible. This may be information such as monitoring data on the warm pool and South China Sea; the prediction of summer monsoon onset; the predicted monsoon rainfall distributions; the frequency of occurrence and tracks of tropical cyclones in western Pacific Ocean, and extreme weather and climate events. On 16-17 September 1999, a successful Project Inception Meeting was held in Beijing. Participants from Australia, China, Hong Kong of China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam reported on recent research progress in the areas of the monitoring of ENSO events, SSTA in the warm pool and their impacts on the climate change of East and Southeast Asia as well as the prediction of ENSO with coupled GCM models and statistical methods. The implementation plan of this project, the tasks and timetable for 1999-2000 as well as the renewal proposal for the APN Project for 2000-2001 were fully discussed and agreement was reached on further action in the near future. All experts attending this meeting further emphasized the importance of three issues: 1) monitoring and prediction of sea temperature structures over the Warm Pool including subsurface layer; 2) the impacts of ENSO and sea temperature structure over the warm pool on the climate changes of APN region; and 3) its corresponding social-economic impacts. Finally, the meeting discussed and identified the potential contributions of participating countries/regions. It was agreed to hold an international workshop on ENSO and SSTA over the warm pool in Shanghai on February 27-29, 2000. For further information please see the contact details on the project page.. The above project is one of 14 funded so far by the APN in 1999/2000.
Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000
TOWARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CLIMATE
MODEL (RCM) AND APPLICATION FOR ASIA Background The project, led by START TEA center, has three major components:
Objective Research activities
Capacity building is an important component of this project.
Since this September, the START TEA center has hosted two visiting
scholars from D.P.R. Korea and one young scientist from Mongolia
for regional climate modeling. Through a series of training classes,
they felt that they had a primary understanding of regional climate
modeling and were prepared to undertake further study in order to
apply it to their own countries. Expected outcomes
For further information please see the contact details on the project page. The above project is one of 14 funded so far by the APN in 1999/2000 Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 EARTH'S CHANGING OZONE LEVELS: INVESTIGATING
ITS MAGNITUDE K. Koshy, M. Maata, A. Samad and G. Sami, Department of Chemistry, School of Pure and Applied Chemistry, The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji Abstract Background Like water, ozone can be either a good thing or bad thing. It
depends on where the ozone is and how much there is of it. About
90% of the ozone resides in the 'ozone layer' in the stratosphere,
10-50 km above earth's surface and the remaining 10% in the troposphere,
Virtually the whole world is aware of the stratospheric 'ozone hole' over Antarctica and the concern about depleting the ozone layer which the Montreal Protocol is designed to curtail. In the stratosphere, ozone plays a beneficial role by absorbing dangerous UV radiation from the sun. Those living in major cities of the world are aware of 'surface ozone' as a component of smog. This ozone is a human respiratory irritant. Close to the surface, ozone displays a destructive side. Because it reacts strongly with other molecules, it can severely damage the living tissues of plants and animals. However, there is a third and a very important 'kind' of ozone, one that is less familiar. This is the 'tropospheric ozone' that exists in the free troposphere. Here, ozone is a powerful greenhouse gas. Ozone Monitoring in Fiji: A NASA/USP Project The USP Results (See
figures) On an average, our ground level ozone seldom exceeds 30 parts per billion, with a three year average of 18 ppbv (a range of 80 - 120 ppbv being considered safe for ground level ozone). But the tropospheric ozone levels reflect much wider variations possibly showing anthropogenic contributions (three year range, 21-242 ppbv; av. 72 ppbv). Air trajectory measurements show that air masses passing over Fiji travel large distances from as far as Africa or South East Asia. The stratospheric levels, as expected over a tropical Pacific site, display less dramatic variations. An average stratospheric concentration of about 9 parts per million is considered healthy (three year range, 7.3-12.5 ppmv; av. 9.5 ppmv) Another measure of ozone level is the 'column concentration' measured in terms of Dobson Units; 100 DU = 1 mm of pure ozone gas at normal temperature and pressure at sea level. The average amount of ozone at mid latitude is about 3 mm or 300 DU and this amount decreases slightly towards the equator. The three year Fiji average is 295 with a range of 224 - 360 DU. During the ozone hole formation in the Antarctic spring, it is common for the polar column ozone concentration to drop as low as 80 DU before it builds back up again in summer. Our observations generally support the trend predicted for the tropical Pacific: very low surface concentrations, a seasonally variable tropospheric concentration possibly reflecting a strong biomass burning signal, a relatively steady annual to slowly decreasing stratospheric level revealing the complete absence of any Antarctic 'ozone hole' type chemistry operating over tropical islands, an observation further confirmed by the uniformly high total column ozone levels. Although the levels over Fiji appear safe, it should always be remembered that as a result of the uniformly increasing concentration of CFC's and their relatively long life time, there is an average annual loss of about 2-3% ozone worldwide, quite apart from the ozone hole itself. From a global change perspective, the span of our results is too short for us to comment on the long term variations of ozone levels in Fiji but we do see a seasonality in our results - higher ozone levels in the dry seasons and slightly lower levels in the wet season. With plenty of sunlight reaching the tropics, any minor decrease in ozone concentration from the norm would be a matter of great concern for us.
Earlier this year, Melbourne University Private, CSIRO and the private company Energetics formed a consortium to prepare and present training material on greenhouse gas mitigation at a recent training course. The course examined opportunities for greenhouse gas mitigation, greenhouse gas baseline estimation, verification of greenhouse gas emissions savings through a combination of lectures and hands-on practical exercises, including field trips. CSIRO researchers from Atmospheric Research, Energy Technology, and Forestry and Forest Products prepared and delivered modules on global warming potentials, greenhouse gas baselines, emissions from waste and fuels, and greenhouse gas sink enhancement. The participants also visited the laboratories of Atmospheric Research and supplemented the material in the module on waste by inspecting a landfill gas collection system in suburban Melbourne. The course participants consisted of senior policy-makers from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, People's Republic of China, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mauritius, Papua-New Guinea, Philippines, Solomon Islands, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The Commonwealth Government's International Greenhouse Partnerships Office supported the course. Submitted by Paul Holper, Communications Officer, CSIRO Atmospheric
Research. Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 OCEANIA APN membership was also on the Agenda at the fifth Meeting of AGE, USP, held on the 3 August. Dr. Koshy strongly supported the idea and highlighted the benefits of Pacific Island countries becoming members of APN. The Committee agreed that this was an important issue and that steps towards obtaining APN membership needed to be acted on. From November 8th to 12th, 1999 over 150 international and regional experts on the oceans converged at the University of the South Pacific to attend the Pacem in Maribus XXVII Conference in Suva, Fiji. During conference Dr. Koshy outlined the role of START-Oceania and the opportunities through having a START Network in the Oceania region. Two major workshops were run concurrently with the conference. The first, on Integrated coastal management for the islands and GIS, focused on South-South partnerships for technology transfer and curriculum sharing for people-centred coastal management. The other workshop was on women in fisheries management and was led by Aliti Vunisea of USP and Dr. Kenneth MacKay. The Pacific Islands Climate Change Conference will be held in Rarotonga Cook Islands from 3-7 April, with the following primary objectives:
During this conference, the START-Oceania Network will be holding its 2nd Committee meeting. Further information relating to this conference can be obtained from the following web-pages: SPREP http://www.sprep.org.ws and National Tidal Facility (NTF) http://www.ntf.flinders.edu.au Compiled from report by START-Oceania Liaison Officer Ms. Liz Wilson SOUTH ASIA The training centered around the following topics:
A compilation of the papers already published in this area has been issued and circulated amongst the students. The Ministry of Forestry and Environment of Sri Lanka hosted
the first South and SE Asia regional session of the Global Biodiversity
Forum during 24-26, October in Colombo. It was organized jointly
by IUCN, UNEP and several other conservation organizations in Asia.
The Forum focused on five themes:
The recommendations of the Forum will be submitted to the 5th meeting of the SBSTTA to the Convention on Biodiversity, to be held in Montreal in January, 2000. The Forum was attended by over 130 representatives from more than 23 countries. The final report is under preparation. A SASCOM Regional Synthesis Report is now being prepared by Dr.
A. P. Mitra, Ex-officio Director, SASCOM, focusing on the following
aspects of the South Asian region:
A number of other publications and reports have been produced in 1999 and are available from the SASCOM Liaison Officer. Forthcoming regional workshops/meetings:
Compiled from report by SASCOM Liaison Officer Dr. Sumana Bhattacharya SOUTHEAST ASIA A Southeast Asia Regional Workshop on Asian Aerosol Data Synthesis was held at the Environment Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand on October 9, 1999. This workshop is one of the series of activities under the inter-regional APN Aerosol Project #99009. Participants from around the region met to exchange aerosol data, integrate and compile the data into a metadata system and CD-ROMs, determine the gaps in data availability, and obtain training in on-line data information format registration. The SARCS APN liaison officer spent a very productive 3 weeks during October at the APN Secretariat in Kobe assisting with the call for proposals, general Secretariat operations, and organizing the APN Symposium and workshops. The time spent with the Secretariat enabled the liaison officer to gain a more thorough understanding of APN. Scientists throughout the region are currently preparing an IGBP regional synthesis report. This report will cover the a wide range of topics including carbon cycle, nitrogen, climate variability, water security, biodiversity, energy, food, coastal resources, and atmospheric pollution. Each topic will address environmental changes, biophysical responses, human response, drivers of change, and synthesis. This report will be completed by April 2000 and presented at an IGBP conference in Stockholm. For more information, please contact Dr. Louis Lebel at llouis@wu.ac.th. A second planning workshop for the APN-funded project "The Impact of El Nino and La Nina on Southeast Asia: The Human Dimension, Policy Lessons and Implications for Global Change" (#99003) took place on 12 November 1999 in Hanoi, Vietnam. This workshop will take place from 21-23 February 2000 in Hanoi(See calendar), and will aim to increase capacity to respond to El Nino and La Nina events in the Indo-China region. Although the emphasis of this project is on the Indo-China region, participants from international organizations, Southeast Asia and outside the region will be invited to share their ideas and experiences, and lend an educational component to the workshop. Invited speakers will be asked to give lectures on impacts assessment, prediction, and human dimensions. For more information, please contact Dr. Nguyen Huu Ninh at cered@hn.vnn.vn. Compiled from report by SARCS Liaison Officer Ms. Connie Chiang TEMPERATE EAST ASIA During the 2nd TEACOM synthesis meeting, the progress of the
preparation of the TEACOM chapter was During the 8th TEACOM meeting, the ongoing START/APN regional projects on regional climate modeling (RCM) and land use studies (LUTEA), the planned LOICZ-related regional project for East Asia and the major advances of global change research with different national emphases were reported and discussed. The preparation of the TEACOM chapter for the START synthesis book was also reported. Participants were briefed on the future work plan and it was agreed to combine the next TEACOM meeting with a possible joint RCM and LUTEA workshop in early 2001. The 13th START Scientific Steering Committee meeting was held in Beijing, China from October 26-29, 1999. During the meeting, the START-SSC participants and representatives of the IGFA (International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research) meeting visited the START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia to inspect the research and facility development. The Director of START TEA RC Prof. Congbin Fu made an overall report on the research-driven capacity building at the START TEA RC. His presentation covered the center's research orientation, objectives, projects, findings and the capacity development on human resources, data and computation systems, and the web-based platform for the Regional Integrated Environmental Modeling System (RIEMS). After his presentation, ten young researchers at the center also reported their research work in the fields of climate variability, climate processes, ecosystem processes and regional climate model application. The research achievements of the START TEA RC were highly regarded by the START-SSC and IGFA participants.ﾊ Compiled from report by TEACOM Liaison Officer Mr. Zhibin Wan Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 SARCS (Southeast Asia) SASCOM (South Asia) START Oceania TEACOM (Temperate East Asia) Back to the contents of APN Newsletters January 2000 PROJECTS FUNDED BY APN The APN Fourth Inter-Governmental Meeting decided to fund 12 projects based on an APN budget consisting of about US$ 675,000 from the Environment Agency of Japan and US$ 325,000 from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) provided via START. Two further projects have since been supported from the APN contingency fund. Projects may also be funded from other sources not noted here, including in-kind support from countries.
|