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APN Newsletters |
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APN Newsletter March 1999
Monitoring trends
The international framework for climate research and monitoring is provided by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The WCRP was established nearly 20 years ago, and one of its major components is the program for Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR). The work of CLIVAR depends upon the availability of long-term consistent global data sets that can resolve the spatial and temporal variability of the physical climate system. The GCOS was established after the Second World Climate Conference in 1992, and it aims to provide the long-term global-scale observations needed for both research and operational climate services. One key component of GCOS is the GCOS Surface Network (GSN), which produces baseline observations across the global land surface for use by all users of climate data. One application of these baseline observations is to monitor long-term changes and trends in global climate. A joint GCOS-CLIVAR workshop was held in Asheville, USA in June 1997 to encourage the development of climate data sets and of analysis techniques to determine whether extreme climate events are becoming more extreme or variable. The detection of climate change requires the assembly of high-quality time series of key variables, such as rainfall and temperature. These time series must be corrected for any time-varying biases due to changes in observing practices, instrumentation or location of measurement sites. The Asheville workshop was the first step towards the production of the required time series and the identification of appropriate indicators of change. The APN workshop The Asia Pacific region was not well represented at the Asheville workshop, and there has been little work on improving the climate data sets in the region or on developing the analysis techniques to monitor climate extremes. To help raise awareness of the issue in South East Asia and South Pacific countries, the APN funded a three-day workshop in December 1998 that was hosted by the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) in Melbourne, Australia. The meeting included representatives from the national meteorological services of 13 countries, as well as experts from USA, UK, Japan and Australia. A major aim of the workshop was to encourage regional participation in the international studies on monitoring and detecting changes in climate extremes. Following presentations on issues associated with the collection and quality control of data, on the development of climate indicators, and on existing regional data and analyses, the workshop separated into three breakout groups to consider questions on data availability, data problems, and analyses needed to monitor climate extremes. The deliberations of the breakout groups produced a number of conclusions and recommendations that the participants will endeavour to follow up. Recommendations The first conclusion was that the meeting had been very effective in raising awareness of the issue. It was agreed that the network of contact people associated with the analysis of climate extremes in the South East Asia and South Pacific region, established by the workshop, should be maintained. This would be done through the maintenance of a fax/email list, but the feasibility of extending it to a web site should be investigated.The participants recognised that it would be valuable for them to encourage the enhancement and maintenance of national infrastructure needed to monitor climate extremes. It was seen that the GSN sites in each country should be nurtured, with the collection and analysis of daily observations being a high priority. It was also recognised that national climate data bases had to be supported in order to protect past data and to ensure that new observations would be properly archived and accessible for future use. A prime outcome of the workshop was the desire of all participants to contribute to the IPCC TAR. Some participants would be directly involved in the IPCC assessment of research on climate extremes, and they would ensure that issues raised at the APN workshop would be transmitted to the IPCC process. Similarly all participants would be kept informed of progress in the IPCC assessment. It was recognised that the workshop participants could make a significant and unique contribution to the IPCC TAR, by working together to prepare a regional report on trends in climate extremes. The regional report would need to be prepared jointly at a follow-on workshop in late 1999. The follow-on workshop would allow all participants to use identical techniques to quality-control and analyse their data sets. Thus the regional analysis, prepared at the workshop, would provide a consistent analysis of climate extremes over the whole region. Moreover the software used for the analyses would be made available to each participant for continuing use in their home institution. Conclusion The activity generated by APN support for the Melbourne workshop fits nicely with the aims of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. It has encouraged regional co-operation through the active participation of 13 countries in the region. The activity and its output are linked directly to the IPCC process, and so it has clear relevance to policy makers. Moreover the activity requires each country to analyse their own data, and so capacity building is a major outcome. APN # 98003 |