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APN Newsletter March 1999
Message from the APN Director A very successful Scientific Planning Group (SPG) meeting was held in Jakarta, Indonesia from 2-4 February, of which more details are given on p3. At that meeting Professor Soegiarto Aprilani stepped down as Co-Chair of the SPG. I do not feel that I can let this opportunity pass without expressing the gratitude of the APN for the many years of service he has given as Co-Chair.Professor Aprilani is a founding father of the APN and much of the progress we have made so far is thanks to his hard work and enthusiasm. We hope he will remain a member of the APN for some time to come, and we congratulate Professor Zhao Zong-Ci of China on her election to Co-Chair as his replacement.The next Inter-Governmental Meeting of the APN will take place from 18-20 March in Kobe, Japan. A number of major issues will be decided at that meeting including the projects to be funded next year and the final details of the Strategic Plan. In the next issue of the APN Newsletter we will provide full details on the outcomes. - Yuki Mori Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 Monitoring trends M.J. Manton and N. Nicholls
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 to provide authoritative assessments of the state of the science of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. The assessments also include the impacts of possible climate changes and the available response strategies to mitigate or adapt to such changes. The Second Assessment Report (SAR) of the IPCC was completed in 1995, and one of its conclusions was that "There are inadequate data to determine whether consistent global changes in climate variability or weather extremes have occurred over the 20th century." Changes or trends in the frequency or intensity of extreme climate events, such as floods or droughts, could have profound effects on the natural environment and on human activities. The issue is therefore seen as a priority for research to be included in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC which will be completed in 2001. A key question for the TAR will be "Has the climate become more variable or extreme?" The importance of climate data was highlighted by Professor Bert Bolin, the former chair of the IPCC, when he told the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change that if the worldÕs climate monitoring networks continue to deteriorate then we will be less likely to detect climate change in future decades than we have been in past decades. For longer version, click here Back to the contents of APN Newsletter
March 1999 Scientific Planning Group Meeting 2-4 February, 1999, Jakarta The Fourth APN Scientific Planning Group (SPG) meeting was held in Jakarta, hosted by the Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN). The SPG reviewed the 69 proposals for funding that were received this year, and will make its recommendations to the Inter-Governmental Meeting (IGM) in March. It also re-assessed the proposals process in general and made some recommendations to clarify and simplify the process. The major topic for discussion was the APN's Strategic Plan, and in particular those aspects that will affect the scientific work that the APN conducts. SPG members voiced their strong support for the concept of APN facilitated 'scoping' workshops to set research agendas in areas of key scientific importance. Through this process it is proposed that APN member countries will together design cooperative projects to address the major concerns of the region. Professor Soegiarto Aprilani of Indonesia announced at the meeting that he will step down as Co-Chair of the SPG following the IGM. The participants expressed their gratitude to him for the many years of work he has put in, and a small gift was presented to him by the Secretariat. Professor Zhao Zong-Ci of China was elected as the new Co-Chair. Special thanks must go to LAPAN for their hard work as the local
organisers and for hosting a reception for APN members on the first
night of the meeting. Back to the contents of APN Newsletter
March 1999
FEATURED
ORGANIZATION The APN Newsletter provides the opportunity for other organizations involved in global change research in the Asia-Pacific region to introduce their activities. Through these articles, the APN hopes to promote international cooperation, to help prevent duplication of activities, and to increase awareness of the many different bodies involved in global change issues. The UNEP Division of Environmental Information and Early Warning comprises the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS), the Global Resource Information Database (GRID), State of the Environment (SoE) Unit and UN System-wide Earthwatch Coordination elements of UNEP. The programme will facilitate cooperative environmental assessments and development issues of international significance. In Asia and the Pacific, the Programme is implemented through the UNEP/ GRID facility located at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Bangkok, Thailand. The facility was established by UNEP in 1989. The role of GRID-Bangkok has been expanded to encompass UNEP"s Environment Assessment Programme for Asia and the Pacific (UNEP/EAP. AP). The programme is implemented in association with AIT and regional, sub-regional and national partner institutions. It operates under the regional policy direction of UNEP"s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. The main purpose of the Macro-scale land cover monitoring and assessment project of UNEP/EAP.AP is to assess the present status of land cover types, monitor the changes, identify major change areas (Ôhot spots"), and investigate the identified Ôhot spot" areas in detail to identify driving forces responsible for the changes. NOAA AVHRR satellite data is the primary source of information for land cover monitoring and assessment at the macro-scale whereas, high resolution satellite data such as Landsat/SPOT and field survey are the primary source of information for "hot spot"areas investigation. The project is being implemented together with sub-regional partners such as ICIMOD, SACEP, SPREP, MRC, and ASEAN and national counterparts. The project also aims to build the capacity of the sub-regional partners and national institutions by providing hardware, software and training supports, so that they can perform the exercise themselves in the future. Land cover monitoring and assessment of 12 countries including, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Iran, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have been completed so far. The project coverage is expanding every year, the purpose of which is to prepare a wall-to-wall map of Asia and the Pacific on a regular basis. Country reports and digital data sets are available at UNEP/EAP. AP for distribution. Similarly, the outcome of "hot spot" areas investigation such as "Land Use/Land Cover Change in South-East Asia" and accompanying digital datasets are also available for distribution. It is planned to use moderate resolution satellite data such as IRS WIFS and MODIS for future monitoring and assessment. The outcome of the project forms a part of GRID database consisting of bio- physical, socio-economic and statistical database, the total size of which is over 22 Gigabytes. UNEP/EAP.AP also maintains a GRID catalogue of its sub-regional partners and other interested parties. Technical Note: NOAA AVHRR High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data with a nominal spatial resolution of 1.1 km is being used for the study. The HRPT data are being pre-processed for data extraction, noise removal, radiometric calibration, geometric correction, cloud masking, and country masking. In-house programs have been written for pre-processing. Due to the lack of atmospheric data, an atmospheric correction has been omitted. The analysis is being done in a country by country basis by utilizing both harvest season and summer season data. Unsupervised classification followed by iterative labelling utilizing available secondary information is the classification approach adopted. For the "hot spot" areas investigation either Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) multi-spectral satellite data with the spatial resolution of 30 meters or SPOT XS data with the spatial resolution of 20 meters are being used. For this, a hybrid approach of both supervised and unsupervised classification system is being used. For further information, please contact: Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 ECOCONSCIOUSNESS Dr. Yok-shiu Lee and Dr. James E. Nickum Background Sustainable development will necessitate self-initiated sustained action by ordinary people. This in turn will require scientists and policymakers to find improved ways to popularize their findings and policies in a way that fits the understanding and life experiences of the citizenry. Hence solving the increasingly global environmental problems of the twenty-first century will ironically require greater attention to local action and the thought, or consciousness, that may or may not impel that action. Ecoconsciousness consists of "the structures of environmental knowledge, beliefs, values, and concepts that facilitate or motivate positive human behavior toward the environment." These structures can be traditional (e.g., religious), neo-traditional (romanticized pasts) or wholly modern (e.g., science or values communicated via the media). Contemporary minds usually contain a palette of all these structures in various hues. This makes it very difficult to incorporate ecoconsciousness into policy making in an operationally meaningful way, and opens it to manipulation for political purposes. Nonetheless, policymaking for sustainable development without sensitivity to the perceptions of the public who have to implement it is a recipe for failure. Initial findings The findings of the first two years of the APN ecoconsciousness project include the following: 1. The interplay between popular beliefs and scientific knowledge about the environment is complex and poorly understood. It is clear, however, that there are major disjunctures between these two systems of understanding. This has important implications for the design and implementation of programs to engage the public in environmental protection. Research on public perceptions of environmental problems and its relation to scientific understanding deserves high priority in work on ecoconsciousness. To this end we are now (1999-2000) carrying out a comparative study of public and elite perceptions of environmental problems. We are focusing on the Òmental modelsÓ of environmental processes and comparative risk perception, comparing the views of scientists, elites and the lay public. We are devoting special attention to locating the consciousness of a key environmental issue in each place: particulates in Hong Kong, dioxin in Japan, and deforestation in Vietnam. Like most global issues (with which they will be compared), these 'local' concerns have long-term cumulative effects, depend on more or less contested science for their place on the agenda, and may have low salience in peopleÕs minds compared to more pressing problems of everyday life. 2. Little is known about the role of ecoconsciousness in stimulating public participation in popular environmental movements in the region. Yet these movements are beginning to play an important role in policy-making in several countries. We have learned that critical factors determining the nature of the linkage between consciousness and movements include the openness of policymaking in each country to initiatives by non-state actors, whether people feel their actions can make a difference, and the nature of the environmental problem (e.g., some movements are conservationist Ògreen,Ó while others are pollution ÒbrownÓ). The dynamic linkages between local issues and groups, the scientific community, the political structure, and global international activism can be complex and intricate. Where they do not do so already, international donor agencies need to tailor their programs to take this site-specific dynamism between different forms of local, national and global ecoconsciousness into full consideration, including a clear view of their own role as catalyst, inhibitor or bogeyman. 3. There seem to be more points in common among contemporary systems than there are among traditional systems. This is especially true of the shared environmental knowledge of different national elites and urban populations with access to contemporary communications media. To some extent ecoconsciousness appears to be contemporary in nature and unconnected to traditional value systems. This hypothesis deserves further exploration, although we have not done so in our project.4. Attempts to find common denominators among the diverse cultures in the region are likely to produce trivial results. Similarly, looking to religions or traditional folk beliefs would appear to have limited utility for policy or science. This is not to deny, however, that resonances are increasingly being found between ecology and faith in most belief systems that stand in contrast to an outdated mechanistic, linear, "hegemonic" view of technological and economic progress. APN # 98005 Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 Article by Anond Snidvongs (SEA START RC) The First Southeast Asia Integrated Regional Model: River Basin Inputs to the Coastal Zone (SEA/BASINS) Partners Workshop took place at Chiang Rai, Thailand, 16-19 November 1998. The APN was the major sponsor for the workshop funding 25 of the 33 participants from the 10 countries represented at the workshop. Specialization of workshop participants ranged widely, covering hydrology, chemistry, spatial and GIS modeling, field data collection, remote sensing applications, socioeconomic issues, environmental and resource management. Government, academic, and non-governmental organizations were represented. Evaluation of Regional Issues That SEA/BASINS Should Address During the presentations by participants, several Southeast Asia regional issues related to drainage basins were noted. Among those were:
It was agreed that finer spatial resolution is necessary and the 1 km was chosen. The approaches to incorporate drainage network as well as to nest high resolution data for selected areas where data are available into the model were also discussed. Human Dimension of the Model Regional issues highlighted the need for integrated decision support tools for policy and action plan making at various administrative levels (e.g., regional, national, districts, provinces). Such tools must take into consideration regional and local environmental changes, ecological responses, socioeconomic driving forces, non-marketed goods and services, grassroots perception, etc. Potential users of the model to be developed will include international financial institutes involving in hydrological projects in the region, national and local policy makers on water resource, living resources, land-use, urbanization, agriculture, and trade. Model Implementation in Relation to the Overall Goal of SARCS Integrated Science Plan The NAGA model, which has been developed by grants from APN and START, will be an important framework for the integration of regional information on land use/cover, socioeconomic driving factors, global and regional climate variability, response of coastal zone and greenhouse gas fluxes. The NAGA model will utilize the output of the fine resolution simulation of climate change in Southeast Asia being developed at CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research (another APN funded activity in Southeast Asia). The link between the two activities will be an example on how multidisciplinary researches in the region can be integrated and providing a regional synthesis that can not be achieved by individual independent studies. Overall, SEA/BASINS is an effort to address the regional catchment cascades on integrating biogeochemical fluxes from uplands through coast to continental seas, an activity proposed in the SARCS Integrated Science Plan. More information about SEA/BASINS APN # 98005 Workshop #1: 14-17 July 1998, Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand Project Leader: Jeffrey Richey Water and Human Security: A key issue for the 21st Century Dr. Steve Lonergan In November, 1998, the Global Environmental Change and Human Security project (GECHS) of the IHDP, together with the Australian National Committee on Human Dimensions research, organised an international workshop on the topic of Water and Human Security in Southeast Asia and Oceania (with support from START and the APN). This workshop was one of many held over the past five years on the issue of water and security, and more are planned for the future. The issue is not simply one of water pollution and water shortages. There are widespread concerns that the lack of freshwater may contribute to, or cause, political instability and conflict at local, national and regional levels. Freshwater is fundamental to human health and well-being. But world-wide, almost a billion people lack access to safe water and over two billion lack access to adequate sanitation. In some arid and semi-arid regions of the world, water has often been a source of tension. For example, some writers believe that the dispute over water was a key factor in the 1967 war between Israel and neighboring Arab States. And there have been international disputes over the Nile River and the Euphrates River for many years. But what is of more recent concern is that changing environmental conditions, coupled with an enormous increase in demand for water in many regions, will cause increasing problems in the future. The demand for water also increases with the level of economic development and the level of urbanisation. Indeed, with 27 countries already considered in a position of water stressed (with an annual per capita water availability of below 1700 cu. m.) many feel there is a water crisis looming. The problem is becoming acute in Asia, with the demand for water increasing rapidly as the result of
As attempts are made in the region to increase the supply of water to satisfy this demand, considerable environmental and social impacts have resulted. And the problems may be more acute in the future. Unchecked groundwater extraction has already resulted in land subsidence around Bangkok; Singapore is almost totally dependent on Malaysia for its water; and many Asian cities are experiencing severe water pollution problems. One country that may be in a situation of water stress within the next two decades is China. As population increases, the demand for water for both domestic and agricultural use is expected to increase. To avert problems of freshwater scarcity, strategies are needed that focus on both demand management and supply augmentation. A number of projects associated with the IGBP and the IHDP are undertaking research on these issues. There is also an urgent need for actions that will help prevent future conflicts over water. To this effect, GECHS is organising a follow-up workshop that will focus on preventing conflicts in the Salween River Basin. Another spin-off from the workshop has been the collaborative development of a major research project on water and security. Led by Prof. Ed Miles, researchers from Australia, Southeast Asia and the U.S. will be assessing the impact of climate change and climate variability on the hydrology and the water-related institutions in three major river systems: the Mekong, the Murray-Darling, and the Columbia. For further information on the workshop, or on water and security research in general, link to the GECHS web site: http://GECHS.org/. APN # 98009 Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 START Regional Committee for Temperate East Asia (TEACOM) A Pilot Study on the Usage of Climate Information in the Winter Wheat Production in the Northern China(Principle Investigator: Dr. Qian Ye, IAP/CAS) This is one of the Climate Variability Prediction and Agricultural Productivity (CLIMAG) projects which has been supported by START during the past year. In the first stage of the study, efforts have been mainly focused on the application of the regional climate system model (RIEM-tea) developed in START TEA RC with more detailed surface information. A control run was finished for 1994. Simulations on regional climate variations for the study regions, i.e., Hebei, Henan and Shandong Provinces, were done for the same year. Comparisons between the simulated and observed climate were made. Results are quite encouraging. Meanwhile, a new wheat dynamic production model (WDPM) which is based on the work in Chinese Agriculture Academy of Sciences is developed. This model uses the outputs from the RIEM-tea model and simulates the every stage of bio-production process of winter wheat. Work to couple the RIEM-tea and WDPM is underway. The social aspects of the research have also been conducted. A group of scientists from different disciplines have been involved, including experts and managers working in different agricultural sectors. It was found that currently climate information has not been fully understood by most managers in China and an education campaign is needed. With the help from media, a nation-wide program was launched to ignite public interest on the application of climate information to agriculture. The TEACOM Regional Committee Meeting will take place in May in Japan, in conjunction with the IGBP Congress. Compiled from report by TEACOM Liaison Officer Mr. Zhibin Wan.
SOUTH ASIA START REGIONAL COMMITTEE (SASCOM) The most important topics and projects of SASCOM in the past year, as reported in the APN Newsletter Vol.4, No.1 August 1998, were: (a) Aerosol Scoping Workshop, held at National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, India during March 25 to 28, 1998; and (b) Indo-gangetic plains land-use/ land-cover change workshop held at Nagpur, India between March 30th to April 1, 1998. Overview of major global change research activities in the region in the past year: Study of Greenhouse Gas Sources/ Sinks and their Inventory with special thrust on co-ordinated N2O measurements over several tropical soil/crop spread across the country in a campaign mode; the Asia wide Methane-Asia Campaign for integrated and inter-calibrated methane estimation; Improve estimate of CH4 emissions from y livestock; Monitoring of transport sector emissions of NOx, CO etc.; Update national inventory of greenhouse gases using revised methodology and new measurements.Study of Minor Constituents and Chemical Modelling, New campaigns with MST Radar and ozonesondes to study tropospheric-stratospheric exchange; Study of ozone changes using Indian ozonesondes including H2O profiles; Simultaneous measurements of key chemical species O3, NO, NOx, CO etc; Analysis of satellite data on minor species. Study of Biomass Burning, Atmospheric Aerosols, Acid Rain and their Precursors with thrust on aerosol sources and transport in the Indian Sub-continent - INDOEX; NPL activities related to Aerosol Asia Programme elements as defined in the 1998 Aerosol Scoping Workshop; Composite measurement of slash and burn, forest fires and other biomass burning emissions; Acid-rain campaign.Free Air Carbon dioxide Exchange (FACE) facility is being developed to study the effects of enhanced CO2 concentration on crops. Open top chambers are already in operation in last few years and a mid FACE facility is fabricated. Mitigation option studies are being conducted for CH4 and N20 emitted from rice paddy fields and other agricultural fields. Integrated Analysis and Assessment of Critical Issues in Climate Change. The project is aimed at providing inputs in the context of Kyoto Protocol and subsequent policy process leading up to the COP4 and beyond and will help in developing the Indian position by providing analytical inputs for answering the pertinent scientific and policy questions. The project will help in building a regionally sensitive Integrated Assessment approach for climate change analysis in India and the sub-continent.Land use land cover change studies in the Indo-gangetic plains. The aim of this programme is to identify driving forces which are functioning in bringing about change in land use and cover of this region and to suggest sustainable developmental programmes to cope up with the change in future. The programme on Estuarine modeling and coastal zone management aims to forge a regional research network (RRN) for coordinating regional research activities in line with the priorities identified by LOICZ and collaborate with regional efforts related to LUCC, GLOBEC and JGOFS. Compiled from report by SASCOM Liaison Officer Dr. Sumana
Bhattacharya. SASCOM (South Asia) TEACOM (Temperate East Asia) OTHER CONTACT START Oceania Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 PROJECTS
FUNDED BY APN The APN Third Inter-Governmental Meeting in March 1998 decided to fund 12 projects based on an APN budget consisting of about US$500,000 from the Environment Agency of Japan and US$250,000 from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) provided via START. Projects may also be funded from other sources not noted here, including in-kind support from countries. Back to the contents of APN Newsletter March 1999 Governmental Focal Points/Contacts (FP) and Scientific Planning Group (SPG) Members
*Indicates Co-Chair of SPG
APN Newsletter editorial staff:James Robertson |