|
| Japanese |
|
|
|
|
|
| ** HOME ** |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
APN Newsletters | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Having taken over from Mr. Natori as Director of the APN at the beginning of this year, I have now had the opportunity to meet many of the people involved with the APN and to discuss with them the issues we face. This is clearly a very exciting time, both for the global climate change community in general and the APN in particular. The Kyoto Protocol served to push the issue of climate change further up the political agenda and drew worldwide attention to environmental issues. Accordingly at the 1998 Inter-Governmental Meeting the APN decided to make climate change, together with the human dimensions of global environmental change, priority issues for the coming year. We very much hope to support some productive work in both these areas. The APN is now into its third year of formal existence following the inaugural Inter-Governmental and Scientific Planning Group meetings in 1996. It continues to grow in strength, as demonstrated by the recent joining of Cambodia, Nepal, Pakistan and Vietnam. Like any organisation, as it grows it faces new challenges and opportunities which must be identified and addressed. As mentioned on page 4, we are now involved in a strategic planning exercise to set the direction of the APN over the next 5 years. This will give us a chance to reflect on progress to date, take stock of the current situation and set a course for future growth. I urge you to voice your opinions on the way forward - please contact the Secretariat for more details. I look forward to working with you all in furthering the success of the APN and strengthening global change research in the Asia-Pacific Region. Yuki Mori
THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN POLICY DEVELOPMENT RELATED TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Dr. Graeme Pearman Summary of science presentation to the APN Inter-Governmental
Meeting in Beijing in March. In this age of focus on economic wealth generation and accountability, science remains highly pluralistic and indeed, its value often difficult to quantify. National science programs contribute to the community benefit by providing linkages to the international technological/scientific knowledge base, contributing to the development of a technologically literate public and integrating the knowledge and value of science with the other relevant factors to assist in the development of national policy (government and private). Each of these contributions can be seen in the area of global change, which includes those challenging problems in which the impacts of community and industrial developments are so inextricably linked with the environment and its sustainability. Further, the benefits delivered are equally diverse, including improvement of personal, family, and national well being; security and freedom from ill health and other threats; national pride and sense of international place; as well as opportunities for creative and satisfying employment; wealth generation and economic independence; cultural and social development and protection of the environment. Science serves in both the generation and the application of knowledge. Yet either of these approaches influences the positioning of science within the spectra of responsive (to clients) or proactive (to science needs), applied or pure, short-term or long-term, serving economic or cultural (in the broadest sense) objectives. (See Fig. 1 & 2). The need for Science to be both responsive and proactive, harnessing the skills for the solution of particular tasks, while benefiting from the alternative vision that is possible from science, influences the way in which Science needs to be performed. This includes the preservation of the core strengths of the scientific methodology, how it is supported and the responsibilities of scientists and their institutions.
TOWARDS ADEQUATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA Dr. Congbin Fu Summary of science presentation to the APN Inter-Governmental
Meeting in Beijing in March. Global change is significantly affecting human society, and the accurate projection of regional climate change is an important long term goal, so that potential impacts can be adequately assessed by policy makers, resource managers and the public. The current assessments under global warming scenarios have shown that there may be significant changes in Asia in terms of climate, water resources, agriculture and natural vegetation cover by about middle of next century. The impacts on agriculture are particularly important for Asia given the large amount of land under crop production. Such research results should form an integral component in policy making by the governments of the region. However the current impact assessments are mainly based on scenarios simulated by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and confidence is low in their ability to project regional climate. For instance, the bias of current GCMs in simulating climate in East Asia can be as high as 200% for precipitation and 120 degrees C for temperature. Therefore scientific evaluation on both the uses and uncertainties of these assessments are necessary before they can be presented to policy makers and public users. One of the most promising approaches to improve the projection of regional climate change is the development of Regional Climate Models (RCM) which can better capture both the regional forcing, and the large scale forcing through nesting with the GCMs. In order to develop a regional climate model which will better describe the regional features of Asia monsoon system, a START-APN RCM project is now under way supported by multiple funding sources, including several national projects, START and the APN. The project - Regional Modeling of the Changes of the "General Monsoon System" of Asia Under Anthropogenic Forcing - consists of 7 components: (1) Integrated analysis on the characteristics of environmental changes in the Asian monsoon region, (2) Development of a conceptual model of the "General Monsoon System", (3) Development of a coupled climate/ecology/chemistry regional model for Asia, (4) Development of a data base for regional modeling and diagnosis, (5) Simulation of climate change in Asia under regional anthropogenic forcing factors, (6) Regional analysis of environmental and socio-economic consequences and (7) Integrated assessment study based on regional climate change scenarios. Research has shown that climate and ecosystem are coupled with each other strongly in the monsoon regions in two-way interactions. On one hand, the high rate monsoon climate changes serve as the strong driving force for the variation of the ecosystem. On the other hand, changes in the terrestrial ecosystem should have significant feedback on the monsoon climate. Therefore there is a need to introduce the biological component to couple with the physical monsoon climate. Further, since Asia is the habitat for nearly 57.2% of the world population and is undergoing rapid economic growth and continuing population increase, the anthropogenic modification of the monsoon system by industrial emissions, land use/cover changes and urbanization are likely. Therefore there is a need to introduce the human component to couple with the natural monsoon system. When the above anthropogenic forcing is taken into account, the chemical process also involves the monsoon system. Hence there is also a need to introduce the chemical component to couple with the physical monsoon climate. It is anticipated that from global change point of view, a more complete monsoon system should thus be a physical/biological/chemical/social coupled system. This is what can be called "the General Monsoon System". The development of this concept is a major outcome of the project so far. Since current regional climate models are not able to describe these major processes of the Asian monsoon system, it is necessary to develop a regional climate model for Asia in conjunction with that of GCMs. As a first step, the development of two major components of this model, climate-vegetation coupling and climate-aerosol coupling which very likely are enhanced through regional anthropogenic forcing in Asia (i.e. land use/cover change and industrial emissions) is now being undertaken in this START/TEACOM-APN project. The application of this new version of a RCM for East Asia has shown how this will help improve the impact assessment of climate change in Asia. At present there are very few projections of climate change with coupled atmospheric-ocean models which include the radiative effects of aerosols. To study the effects of industrial sulphate aerosols on the Asian monsoon system, a new radiation scheme which includes the sulphate aerosols must be coupled with the regional climate through a transport model. The numerical experiments which include both direct and indirect effects of aerosols over East Asia have shown a significant cooling over the southern part of Temperate East Asia, a pattern similar to the observed temperature changes in last 30 years. This regional pattern has not been captured by most GCMs. These preliminary results indicate the possible application of the new RCM for Asia for the improvement of impact assessment. Some numerical experiments on the effects of land use/cover change on the Asian monsoon system have also shown the possible application of introducing the biological component in projection of monsoon climate changes. Congbin Fu is the Director of the START Regional Center for Temperate East Asia, based at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
THIRD APN INTER-GOVERNMENTAL MEETING The Third APN Inter-Governmental Meeting (IGM) took place in Beijing from the 11th to 13th of March, hosted by the Government of China. It was attended by representatives from 16 APN countries, including first time attendance by Nepal, Pakistan and Vietnam, and observers from the scientific community. The participation of an observer from the newly created START Oceania was welcomed. Major topics at this meeting included final decisions on 12 projects to receive APN financial support in the coming year (see Projects Funded by APN in 1998/99), identifying priority areas for funding in 1999/2000 (see Call for Proposals for 1999/2000), revising key APN documents, ways to improve the effectiveness and impact of the APN in promoting global change research, and strengthening links between global change science and policy-making in the Asia-Pacific region. Participants heard reports on the Scientific Planning Group meeting in January, finances, and results of projects funded by the APN last year. A proposal was made to create an APN award to recognize scientific achievement; this proposal is to be discussed during the year. Also, a proposal was made to establish APN Focal Points in each country to facilitate communications (see list on page 10). In addition, the need was pointed out for more discussion on data collection and management problems relating to global environmental change in APN countries. This is to be considered in the coming year. It was agreed that the APN should attach priority in 1998-1999 to (1) climate change work, particularly relating to the outcomes of the Kyoto Conference and to the question of how developing countries can respond to global warming issues, and (2) human dimensions and global environmental change work to support the proposed Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community to be held in 1999 in Japan. The IGM also agreed that priority should be given in the medium to long term (i.e. from 1999 onward) to climate change issues, science-policy links, and coastal processes and oceans; and that capacity building should continue to be a priority. Perhaps the most important outcome of the IGM was the decision to start a strategic planning process to guide the APN over the next 5 years. (Please see box.) Documents discussed and finalized include revisions of APN Procedures and Criteria for Selection of Funded Activities, and APN Organizational Arrangements and Procedures in order to take into account experience of the past year regarding project funding. A new paper from the Secretariat entitled Financial Guidelines for APN Activities was discussed which clarifies the use of APN funds for projects, the structure of APN funds, and includes the format of contracts between the APN and project leaders. For copies please contact the Secretariat or see the APN homepage. Based upon a suggestion made at the Scientific Planning Group meeting in January, presentations on the links between policy-making and science relating to global change were included in the agenda. Prof. Congbin Fu made a presentation using the Regional Climate Models project which he is coordinating to show how the impact assessment of climate change can be improved. Dr. Graeme Pearman made a presentation illustrating the interaction of science, enterprise, and government. Summaries of both talks are included in this newsletter. The Third APN IGM was attended by representatives from Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, USA, and observers from ENRICH, SARCS, SASCOM, START Oceania, TEACOM, the International START Secretariat, and one Co-Chair of the Scientific Planning Group. (Proceedings of the IGM will be available. Please contact the Secretariat for a copy, or of the full text of the Chairperson's Summary.) The APN expresses special appreciation to the Government of China for hosting the meeting. SCIENTIFIC
PLANNING GROUP MEETING The Third APN Scientific Planning Group Meeting (SPG) was held in the Botanic Gardens in Canberra, hosted by the Government of Australia, attended by the SPG members from 13 countries, SARCS, SASCOM, TEACOM and the International START Secretariat, and observers from IGBP, WCRP and the National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan. A key activity at the SPG was to review the 24 project proposals received in the APN's first open call for proposals, and prepare recommendations for the Inter-Governmental Meeting on which projects should be funded. In addition, discussions were held about future activities and scientific priorities of the APN. These discussions were carried out in further detail at the Inter-Governmental Meeting in March. One of the highlights of the meeting was a reception kindly hosted by Environment Australia in the National Science Museum, to the sounds of roaring dinosaurs. Special thanks to hosts Dr. Peter Bridgewater and Dr. Robyn Graham of Envronment Australia, and Nelson Quinn as host organizers for the meeting.
The 1998 IGM commissioned a strategic planning process to provide a framework for the development of the APN over the next 5 years. The process aims to clarify thinking on the most productive role fo the APN and should help member countries consider how best they can contribute to the APN's development. Production of the plan will involve key stakeholders in the APN and the final document should provide a basis for dealing with outside funding agencies. A steering group for the strategic plan was created, consisting of the following members: Mr. Yuki Mori (Director of APN Secretariat), Prof. Roland Fuchs (Director of International START Secretariat), Prof. Keiji Higuchi (Chair) and Prof. Dr. Aprilani Soegiarto (both Co-Chairs of the APN Scientific Planning Group). A questionnaire to APN members and related organisations, and subsequent face-to-face consultation by the Secretariat will be part of the planning process. For more information please contact James Robertson or Randy Helten at the Secretariat. The APN Secretariat welcomes the views of anyone wishing to comment.
1999 OPEN
MEETING OF THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE RESEARCH
COMMUNITY An increasing number of researchers are interested in the human causes and impacts of global environmental change, as well as recognizing that local and regional scales are critical for their studies. Following two successful international meetings held at Duke University in 1995 and at IIASA in 1997, the 1999 Open Meeting aims to promote exchanges of information on current research and teaching and to encourage networking and community building in this emerging field. The meeting, hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES, Japan), will be held in Shonan Village, an international conference center in a scenic setting south-west of Tokyo. Plenary talks and commentaries on the following topics are planned: Conflict and the Environment - the interaction between conflict prevention and resolution and environmental issues; Lifestyles, Attitudes and Behavior - their role in driving global environmental change and the potential role of alternative development paths; Decision-making Processes in Response to Global Environmental Change - in particular the linkages between the international, national and local scales and the obstacles to the transfer of policy instruments and norms from one region to another; Land Use and Land Cover Change - the social dimensions of changing land use, human settlements and land cover patterns; Valuation of Ecosystem Services - current thinking on the values that can be attributed to services such as climate regulation, water supply and recreation; Demographic Change and the Environment - the relationships between population growth and other demographic factors, for example migration, and environmental change. In addition to plenary talks, there will be a large number of sessions devoted to the presentation of research results. The International Scientific Planning Committee welcomes the submission of abstracts for individual papers as well as proposals for entire sessions. Selection of the proposals/abstracts will be based on quality and the need to create a coherent, balanced meeting agenda. The Committee encourages the participation of researchers from a broad range of disciplines, including researchers from developing countries and countries with economies in transition, as well as young researchers from all over the world. For these latter categories of researchers, the aim is to provide financial support for some participants whose abstracts are selected for the meeting. For further information on the meeting, including instructions for the submission of abstracts, please consult the IGES Web Site(http://www.iges.or.jp/) or send an e-mail to hdgec@iges.or.jp or mail/fax your inquiry to 99 Open Meeting Secretariat, IGES at Shonan Village Center. (Fax: +81 468 55 3709). The deadline for submission of abstracts is November 1, 1998.
REGIONAL NEWS: A NEW START IS BORN: START-OCEANIA A new regional committee of START is to be established soon, resulting in full geographical coverage of START activities in the Asia-Pacific region. It was decided that a START-Network be established for Oceania and that its Secretariat be based in University of the South Pacific (USP), following a detailed feasibility study by John Hay of the University of Auckland in 1994, the discussions in July 1997 at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji and the START-Oceania Planning Meeting in Canberra in January 1998. The long held view of the regional and international global change researchers that Oceania is the only part of the world without an active START Regional Research Network or an effective substitute, was the major driving force behind this move. The Canberra meeting appointed a START-Oceania Committee with representatives from USP, SPREP, ORSTOM, National Global Change Committees of Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea and the University of Hawaii with Dr. Kanayathu Koshy as the interim chair. START-Oceania is expected to cover a wide geographic area of the tropical Pacific basin with the Northern Marianas, Hawaii, Tahiti, New Zealand, Australia and Papua New Guinea forming the periphery. A draft memorandum of understanding has been agreed upon by the International START Secretariat and USP for the establishment of the Regional Secretariat in Suva. Preparations are also underway to carry out an inventory of global change research activities and priorities for the region. The START-Oceania Regional Secretariat will be formally inaugurated during a Scoping Science workshop scheduled for late September or early October 1998 in the USP Campus, Suva.
SOUTH ASIA START REGIONAL COMMITTEE (SASCOM) Integrated Assessment Modeling Workshop, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are important tools for assisting the formulation of climate change policy. The workshop aimed at familiarizing the Indian community of policy makers and researchers with IAMs and providing training for their use in country specific policy formulation. The workshop helped in sharing the experiences of researchers working in different fields and creating a network for future interactions. All the aspects of different models were discussed in the workshop i.e. model structures, data requirements and policy applications. Several well known IAMs were demonstrated, as were energy-environment-economy interaction models and the climate models which are the components of IAMs. Outcomes of the workshop included the need to critically review the applicability of the different IAMs, prepare databases, take account of local factors in preparing policy options and perform in depth analysis of mitigation and adaptation options arising out of the models. A number of research requirements were also identified. This workshop was funded by the APN.
Most aerosols of anthropogenic origin are found in the lower troposphere. They have a residential time of a few days and are inhomogeneously distributed, the maximum being close to natural sources such as deserts, industrial areas and places where biomass burning take place on a regular basis. Asia is an area of great physical and cultural diversity where rapid changes are occurring and often are coupled with severe socio-economic consequences. The environmental concerns in the region range from local scale problems such as air pollution in urban and industrial centers to ecosystem damage including threats to agriculture and forest productivity due to acidic deposition. Aerosols are a leading cause of mortality in urban areas. Keeping in view the above concerns the Aerosol scoping workshop discussed regional special interest areas and recommended a number of data gathering exercises and research projects including Asian mega city studies in New Delhi, Kathmandu, Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur as a first step to understand the possible health effects of urban aerosols. This workshop was partially funded by the APN.
Indo-gangetic plains in South Asia, encompassing parts of Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan are one of the most productive agricultural regions of the world, endowed with abundant natural resources and feeding millions of people. Of late, rapid expansion in urban areas and land degradation, and problems of increased incidence of pests, diseases and weeds are surfacing increasingly, threatening the food security of the region. In view of the above emerging scenario, it is essential to understand the interactive role of various biophysical and human driving forces operative in the indo gangetic plains region over the past 50 to 100 years, and develop scientific mechanisms and policy options for the comprehensive food security support for the region. The workshop discussed a range of key issues and recommended the development and execution of a Science Plan over the next three years, the issue of a CD ROM in collaboration with NELDA covering the aspects of natural resources and socio-economic factors that are relevant to land use/land cover changes and food security in the region and the encouragement of relevant research projects. For more information contact SASCOM Liaison Officer. Back to the contents of this APN Newsletter General Monsoon System Workshop This was the first ever joint workshop on common issues in global change study involving the leading global change programs of China and Korea. The theme of the workshop was proposed by Chinese scientists and designated by TEACOM a priority research area for East Asian global change communities. The workshop addressed some important topics, including the land surface process model and land-ocean interaction; the measurement and modeling of the carbon, methane and water cycle in agricultural fields; the aerosol and chemical process in the general monsoon system; and finally, the regional climate modeling and remote sensing of land surface features. The workshop identified the need to further cooperate on science planning and academic exchange among young scientists and students.
The topics of presentations at the workshop covered issues related to the development and application of demographic data for land use analysis, remote sensing applications for LUCC, agricultural impacts on biogeochemical processes, and the integration of social and physical data sets. The workshop successfully defined the LUTEA science plans, facilitated the exchange of information regarding research and data set development and availability, and provided background information to young scientists previously unfamiliar with LUCC science areas. This workshop was partially funded by the APN.
A ten-day training course on application of regional climate modeling for Asia will be held 16-25 November 1998 in Beijing. The training course will invite 8 speakers and bring about 20 young scientists mainly from Asia and other START regions to explore and share new research initiatives, ideas and techniques on issues related to regional climate change. Issues include improving the understanding of basic regional climate change processes, an introduction to the operation of regional climate models, their application and the assessment of climate change impact on countries and regions. The course will feature hands-on sessions and extensive lectures by world famous experts. This workshop will be partially funded by the APN. For more information contact TEACOM Liaison Officer. Back to the contents of this APN Newsletter Liaison Officers facilitate communications between the APN and START regional committies and countries in their regions. Dr. Sumana Bhattacharya has recently become the Liaison Officer for the South Asia region and SASCOM. In her post-doctoral work Dr. Battacharya (Ph.D Physics from University of Delhi) has focussed on developing greenhouse gas inventories from India from different sectors such as energy, agriculture, forestry and waste. She is a recipient of the 1998 START young scientist award which was instituted to encourage research in areas of global change in developing countries in Africa and Asia. The award was based on her work on Methane Budget Estimates from Indian Rice Paddy Fields which was published in the Indian Journal of Radio & Space Physics. The APN Secretariat expresses appreciation to Dr. Danesh Chandra Parasher who preceded her as Liaison Officer. APN Liaison Officer for SASCOM
PROJECTS FUNDED BY APN IN 1998/99 The APN Third Inter-Governmental Meeting decided to fund 12 projects based on an APN budget consisting of about US$500,000 from the Environment Agency of Japan and US$250,000 from the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) provided via START. Projects may also be funded from other sources not noted here, including in-kind support from countries.
Events in plain text (not in italics) receive direct funding or co-funding from APN. APN# is the project number in APN records. Activities to Date
STEERIN GROUP OF THE APN IN 1998
CALL FOR PROPOSALS FOR 1999/2000 The APN is inviting proposals for funding of projects meeting certain criteria to promote global change research in the Asia-Pacific region for the period April 1999 to March 2000. Proposals relating to climate change, and to the human dimensions of global environmental change are particularly encouraged. The APN provides a moderate budget to support activities relating to:
Mr. Hideyuki Mori, APN Director Mr. James Robertson, Project Manager
c/o Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental
Studies (AIRIES) APN Newsletter editorial staff: Randal Helten, James Robertson
|
