Toward a Fire and Haze Early Warning System for Southeast Asia

Title Toward a Fire and Haze Early Warning System for Southeast Asia
Authors Jin Ho YOO, Jaepil CHO, Saji HAMEED, Robert FIELD, Kok Foo KWAN, Israr ALBAR
Issue Issue 6, published April 2016
Highlights
  • Four different downscaling methods were developed and integrated into the prototype of EWS in order to improve the predictability.
  • Long-term predictability of monthly precipitation for the four regions within Borneo Island was evaluated.
  • APCC led a two-day workshop in Malaysia, including hands-on training sessions on statistical downscaling and prototype.
  • Needs assessment for early warning information was conducted through field surveys with resource managers.
  • Monthly precipitation forecasts for dry season (August to October) over 4 provinces in Borneo Island showed good predictability less than fourmonth lead time by showing temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) greater than 0.5 in all provinces
Abstract Smoke haze from forest fires is among Southeast Asia’s most serious environmental problems and there is a clear need for a fire and haze early warning system (EWS) for the region. APEC Climate Center (APCC) has been collecting monthly dynamic prediction data produced by 16 institutions and has been producing 6-month lead multi-model ensemble (MME) climate forecasts every month. In this study, we developed four different statistical downscaling methods and assessed the forecast skill of the integrated forecast system over four provinces in Borneo Island. We developed a EWS prototype in which three-month precipitation (August to October) is predicted during April to July and the forecasted precipitation amount is then translated into four fire danger ratings based on the relationship between precipitation amount and CO2 emission. A needs assessment for early warning information was conducted through field surveys with resource managers at three provinces in Indonesia. A two-day workshop was held for the improvement of the EWS. Finally, the forest fire early warning information on Borneo Island created using the EWS will be provided through the hosting server in APCC.
Full text ARCP2013-10CMY-Yoo